U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Jun ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Jul ’20 cattle on feed inventory included 7.03 million steers and steer calves, up 0.3% from 2019 levels, and 4.41 million heifers and heifer calves, down 1.5% from the previous year.
Jun ’20 placements in feedlots declined seasonally from the previous month but finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months, up 2.1%. The YOY increase in placements was smaller than average analyst expectations of a 3.8% increase, however. The month-over-month decline in placements was the smallest experienced throughout the past nine years, finishing below the ten year seasonal average May – June decline of 14.7%.
YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing under 600 pounds (+11.7%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (+5.1%) and 800 pounds or more (+1.2%). Placements weighing 700-799 pounds declined 7.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 8.8% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months on a percentage basis. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 2.1% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing lower for the sixth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 5.1% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’20 marketings of fed cattle increased sharply from the previous month while finishing 1.3% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 1.0% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over recent months as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the month of June. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the recent increase.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month as of Jul 1st, finishing down 0.4%.
- Placements in feedlots increased 2.1% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past six months.
- Marketings of fed cattle rebounded sharply from the previous month while finishing 1.0% higher on a YOY basis during Jun ’20.
The Jul ’20 cattle on feed inventory included 7.03 million steers and steer calves, up 0.3% from 2019 levels, and 4.41 million heifers and heifer calves, down 1.5% from the previous year.
Jun ’20 placements in feedlots declined seasonally from the previous month but finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months, up 2.1%. The YOY increase in placements was smaller than average analyst expectations of a 3.8% increase, however. The month-over-month decline in placements was the smallest experienced throughout the past nine years, finishing below the ten year seasonal average May – June decline of 14.7%.
YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing under 600 pounds (+11.7%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (+5.1%) and 800 pounds or more (+1.2%). Placements weighing 700-799 pounds declined 7.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 8.8% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months on a percentage basis. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.9% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 2.1% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing lower for the sixth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 YTD placements have declined by an additional 5.1% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’20 marketings of fed cattle increased sharply from the previous month while finishing 1.3% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 1.0% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over recent months as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the month of June. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 YTD marketings have declined by 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the recent increase.