U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Aug ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Jun ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined 0.4% from the 27 month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 23.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 0.3 million pounds, or 0.4%, was slightly smaller than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 1.2%. Dry whey production increased 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’20, finishing higher for the tenth time in the past 11 months.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 21.0% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 0.7% Lower YOY
Jun ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 16.4% month-over-month, reaching a five month low level and finishing 0.7% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months. NFDM stocks declined to a four year seasonal low level for the month of June. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 56.7 million pounds, or 16.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal build in stocks of 3.8 million pounds, or 2.2%. NFDM production declined 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ‘20, also reaching a four year seasonal low level.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.7% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 4.1%
Jun ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined contraseasonally to a three month low level but remained 4.1% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the fifth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past three months on a percentage basis.
- Jun ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks declined slightly from the 27 month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 23.6% higher on a YOY basis.
- Jun ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks continued to decline contraseasonally while finishing 0.7% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low seasonal level.
According to the USDA, Jun ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined 0.4% from the 27 month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 23.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 0.3 million pounds, or 0.4%, was slightly smaller than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 1.2%. Dry whey production increased 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’20, finishing higher for the tenth time in the past 11 months.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 21.0% higher YOY, increasing on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 0.7% Lower YOY
Jun ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 16.4% month-over-month, reaching a five month low level and finishing 0.7% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months. NFDM stocks declined to a four year seasonal low level for the month of June. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 56.7 million pounds, or 16.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal build in stocks of 3.8 million pounds, or 2.2%. NFDM production declined 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ‘20, also reaching a four year seasonal low level.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.7% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 4.1%
Jun ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined contraseasonally to a three month low level but remained 4.1% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the fifth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past three months on a percentage basis.