U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Aug ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis also increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Jun ’20, finishing up 3.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 30.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.6% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.2% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 17.3% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 17.3% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 16.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand increased 42.3% YOY.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 3.1% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the previous month. Butter stocks declined to a three month low level but remained at a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of June. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 6.0% YOY
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 6.0% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the third time in the past four months and reaching a record high seasonal level. American cheese disappearance increased 7.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 5.0% higher YOY. Domestic cheese demand increased 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand increased 29.0%.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.7% throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a three month low level but remained at a record high seasonal level for the month of June.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Finishes 6.3% Higher YOY on Strong Export Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 6.3% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past three months. Dry whey export demand increased 42.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 13.0% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.7% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining slightly from the 27 month high level experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 11.1% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 11.1% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing lower for the 15th time in the past 17 months and reaching a five year low seasonal level. WPC export demand declined 19.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 6.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Level, Finishes up 28.3% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 28.3% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month and reaching the highest monthly level on record. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 77.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 4.6% throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a five month low level and a four year low seasonal level for the month of June.
On an absolute basis, Jun ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, followed by butter, while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while declining most significantly for WPC.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached a record high seasonal level on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Jun ’20.
- Butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance each increased to record high seasonal levels throughout Jun ’20 while dry whey disappearance also finished higher on a YOY basis. Jun ’20 whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance declined to a five year low seasonal level, however.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis also increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Jun ’20, finishing up 3.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 30.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.6% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.2% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 17.3% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 17.3% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 16.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand increased 42.3% YOY.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 3.1% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the previous month. Butter stocks declined to a three month low level but remained at a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of June. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 6.0% YOY
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 6.0% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the third time in the past four months and reaching a record high seasonal level. American cheese disappearance increased 7.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 5.0% higher YOY. Domestic cheese demand increased 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand increased 29.0%.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.7% throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a three month low level but remained at a record high seasonal level for the month of June.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Finishes 6.3% Higher YOY on Strong Export Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 6.3% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past three months. Dry whey export demand increased 42.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 13.0% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.7% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining slightly from the 27 month high level experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 11.1% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 11.1% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing lower for the 15th time in the past 17 months and reaching a five year low seasonal level. WPC export demand declined 19.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY increase in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 6.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Level, Finishes up 28.3% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 28.3% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month and reaching the highest monthly level on record. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 77.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 4.6% throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jun ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a five month low level and a four year low seasonal level for the month of June.
On an absolute basis, Jun ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, followed by butter, while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while declining most significantly for WPC.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.