U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Aug ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Jul ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month while finishing 13.1% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of July. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 13th experienced in a row. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 10.4 million pounds, or 2.9%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal decline of 7.2 million pounds, or 2.8%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year. Previous year butter stocks did not reach a seasonal high level until the month of July, however.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 9.7%.
Cheese – Stocks Continue to Decline Contraseasonally but Remain 2.4% Higher YOY
Jul ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the previous month but remained 2.4% above previous year volumes, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 3.4% higher YOY. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 23.3 million pounds, or 1.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build of 16.1 million pounds, or 1.4%. The contraseasonal decline in cheese stocks was the third experienced in a row.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 3.1%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Jul ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Jun ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk continued to decline from the record high level experienced throughout Apr ’20 but remained 4.1% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the fifth experienced in a row.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Jul ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 4.4%. Jul ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Sep 3rd.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 13th consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing up 13.1% and reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of July.
- Jul ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally for the third consecutive month but remained 2.4% higher on a YOY basis, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record.
According to the USDA, Jul ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month while finishing 13.1% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of July. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 13th experienced in a row. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 10.4 million pounds, or 2.9%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal decline of 7.2 million pounds, or 2.8%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year. Previous year butter stocks did not reach a seasonal high level until the month of July, however.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 9.7%.
Cheese – Stocks Continue to Decline Contraseasonally but Remain 2.4% Higher YOY
Jul ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the previous month but remained 2.4% above previous year volumes, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 3.4% higher YOY. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 23.3 million pounds, or 1.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build of 16.1 million pounds, or 1.4%. The contraseasonal decline in cheese stocks was the third experienced in a row.
On a days of usage basis, Jul ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 3.1%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Jul ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Jun ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk continued to decline from the record high level experienced throughout Apr ’20 but remained 4.1% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the fifth experienced in a row.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Jul ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 4.4%. Jul ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Sep 3rd.