Dairy WASDE Update – Sep ’20
According to the September USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, the 2020 U.S. milk production projection was raised two million pounds from the previous month on higher expected growth in milk per cow yields. 2020 projected milk production equates to a 1.4% YOY increase from 2019 production levels.
The 2021 milk production projection was raised one million pounds from the previous month, also on stronger than anticipated milk per cow yields. 2021 projected milk production equates to a 1.8% YOY increase from 2020 projected levels, on pace to reach a seven year high growth rate.
2020 dairy export forecasts were raised from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis on increased global import demand for butter, cheese, whey and powder. 2020 dairy import forecasts were reduced on a milk-fat basis on recent trade data and the expectation for slower butterfat imports. The 2020 dairy import forecast on a skim-solids basis was unchanged from the previous month.
2021 dairy export forecasts were also raised from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis on expectations of firm global demand for U.S. butter, whey and powder. The 2021 dairy import forecasts were raised slightly on a skim-solids basis but reduced on a milk-fat basis on lower expected imports of cheese and other dairy products.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.6% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes also translated to 16.7% of total U.S. milk solids production, up slightly from the previous year projection, while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production, down slightly from the 2020 projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to reach a record high level, slightly exceeding the 2020 projected levels.
2020 butter, cheese and dry whey price forecasts were reduced from the previous month while the 2020 nonfat dry milk price forecast was unchanged. The 2020 Class III milk price forecast of $17.25/cwt was reduced $0.15/cwt from the previous forecast while the 2020 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.40/cwt was also reduced $0.15/cwt. The 2020 All-Milk price forecast of $17.75/cwt was reduced $0.20/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.7% below 2019 price levels.
2021 butter, cheese and dry whey price forecasts were reduced from the previous month while the 2021 nonfat dry milk price forecast was unchanged. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $16.00/cwt was reduced $0.10/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 7.2% below the 2020 projected level, while the 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.60/cwt was reduced $0.05/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 1.5% above the 2020 projected level. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $17.00/cwt was reduced $0.05/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.2% below 2020 projected levels, reaching a three year low level.
2020 dairy export forecasts were raised from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis on increased global import demand for butter, cheese, whey and powder. 2020 dairy import forecasts were reduced on a milk-fat basis on recent trade data and the expectation for slower butterfat imports. The 2020 dairy import forecast on a skim-solids basis was unchanged from the previous month.
2021 dairy export forecasts were also raised from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis on expectations of firm global demand for U.S. butter, whey and powder. The 2021 dairy import forecasts were raised slightly on a skim-solids basis but reduced on a milk-fat basis on lower expected imports of cheese and other dairy products.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.6% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes also translated to 16.7% of total U.S. milk solids production, up slightly from the previous year projection, while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production, down slightly from the 2020 projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to reach a record high level, slightly exceeding the 2020 projected levels.
2020 butter, cheese and dry whey price forecasts were reduced from the previous month while the 2020 nonfat dry milk price forecast was unchanged. The 2020 Class III milk price forecast of $17.25/cwt was reduced $0.15/cwt from the previous forecast while the 2020 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.40/cwt was also reduced $0.15/cwt. The 2020 All-Milk price forecast of $17.75/cwt was reduced $0.20/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.7% below 2019 price levels.
2021 butter, cheese and dry whey price forecasts were reduced from the previous month while the 2021 nonfat dry milk price forecast was unchanged. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $16.00/cwt was reduced $0.10/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 7.2% below the 2020 projected level, while the 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.60/cwt was reduced $0.05/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 1.5% above the 2020 projected level. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $17.00/cwt was reduced $0.05/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.2% below 2020 projected levels, reaching a three year low level.