Dairy WASDE Update – Oct ’20
According to the October USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, the 2020 U.S. milk production projection was raised three million pounds from the previous month on slightly higher cow numbers and a more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow yields. 2020 projected milk production equates to a 1.5% YOY increase from 2019 production levels, consistent with ten year average figures.
The 2021 milk production projection was raised one million pounds from the previous month on a larger dairy cow herd and higher milk per cow yields. 2021 projected milk production equates to a 1.7% YOY increase from 2020 projected levels, on pace to reach a seven year high growth rate.
2020 dairy export forecasts were reduced from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis on lower shipments of butterfat, dry whey and lactose. 2021 dairy export forecasts were reduced on a milk-fat basis on weak anticipated global demand for butterfat but raised on a skim-solids basis on robust global demand for skim milk powder and whey products. Dairy import forecasts remained unchanged on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis for both 2020 and 2021.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.6% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes also translated to 16.8% of total U.S. milk solids production, up slightly from the previous year projection, while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production, down slightly from the 2020 projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to reach a record high level, slightly exceeding the 2020 projected levels.
2020 cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were raised from the previous month however the 2020 butter price forecast was reduced while the dry whey price forecast was unchanged. The 2020 Class III milk price forecast of $18.00/cwt was raised $0.75/cwt from the previous forecast while the 2020 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.50/cwt was raised $0.10/cwt. The 2020 All-Milk price forecast of $18.00/cwt was raised $0.25/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 3.4% below 2019 price levels.
2021 butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were all raised from the previous month. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $17.00/cwt was raised $1.00/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 5.6% below the 2020 projected level. The 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $14.10/cwt was raised $0.50/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.4% above the 2020 projected level. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $17.60/cwt was raised $0.60/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 2.2% below 2020 projected levels, reaching a three year low level.
2020 dairy export forecasts were reduced from the previous month on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis on lower shipments of butterfat, dry whey and lactose. 2021 dairy export forecasts were reduced on a milk-fat basis on weak anticipated global demand for butterfat but raised on a skim-solids basis on robust global demand for skim milk powder and whey products. Dairy import forecasts remained unchanged on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis for both 2020 and 2021.
2020 projected dairy export volumes translated to 16.6% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production. 2021 projected dairy export volumes also translated to 16.8% of total U.S. milk solids production, up slightly from the previous year projection, while import volumes were equivalent to 3.7% of total U.S. milk solids production, down slightly from the 2020 projection. 2021 net dairy trade is projected to reach a record high level, slightly exceeding the 2020 projected levels.
2020 cheese and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were raised from the previous month however the 2020 butter price forecast was reduced while the dry whey price forecast was unchanged. The 2020 Class III milk price forecast of $18.00/cwt was raised $0.75/cwt from the previous forecast while the 2020 Class IV milk price forecast of $13.50/cwt was raised $0.10/cwt. The 2020 All-Milk price forecast of $18.00/cwt was raised $0.25/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 3.4% below 2019 price levels.
2021 butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were all raised from the previous month. The 2021 Class III milk price forecast of $17.00/cwt was raised $1.00/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 5.6% below the 2020 projected level. The 2021 Class IV milk price forecast of $14.10/cwt was raised $0.50/cwt from the previous forecast, finishing 4.4% above the 2020 projected level. The 2021 All-Milk price forecast of $17.60/cwt was raised $0.60/cwt from the previous forecast but remained 2.2% below 2020 projected levels, reaching a three year low level.