U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Oct ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Aug ’20, accounting for half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Canada, while butterfat export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 4.0% and 63.9%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 14.9% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Six Year High Seasonal Level, Finish up 16.8% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes increased 16.8% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, reaching a six year high seasonal level. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 25.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while cheddar cheese export volumes finished 15.7% higher. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese export volumes was only the second experienced throughout the past nine months and the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 1.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have increased an additional 2.2% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Mexico and South Korea were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Aug ’20, combining to account for half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while cheese export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia finished most significantly lower.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 13.2% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Export Volumes Each Finish Higher on a YOY Basis
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 54.4% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the seven most recently experienced YOY increases. The Aug ’20 YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the second largest experienced throughout the past 41 months on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s growth rate.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 30.0% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have rebounded by 12.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season, however.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 11.5% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Aug ’20 WPC export volumes remained 9.0% below three year average seasonal levels.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 28.9% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 17.8% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Aug ’20, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 43.3% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 34.7% YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished 34.7% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the 11th experienced throughout the past 12 months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 29.0% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Aug ’20, accounting for a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for over half of the total Aug ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to China, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 11.4% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 70.8% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Aug ’20 while butter export volumes as a percentage of production finished slightly lower. Dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production increased most significantly from the previous year, followed by NFDM/SMP export volumes.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 16.4% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Aug ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.6% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Aug ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 19.7% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the tenth consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the ten most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 14.7% and reaching the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past seven years. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 12.5% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Aug ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined seasonally from the previous month while finishing 0.3% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the sixth experienced in a row. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 4.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the first time in the past eight months during Aug ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 28th consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes remained higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month throughout Aug ’20, increasing by 1.7%, however net butter trade remained at a negative level for the 28th consecutive month.
- U.S. cheese export volumes increased 16.8% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, reaching a six year high seasonal level, as cheddar cheese export volumes increased at a 14 month high growth rate. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 54.4% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, reaching a seven year high seasonal level, while whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 11.5% YOY throughout the month.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased 34.7% on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month.
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Aug ’20, accounting for half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Canada, while butterfat export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 4.0% and 63.9%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 14.9% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Six Year High Seasonal Level, Finish up 16.8% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes increased 16.8% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, reaching a six year high seasonal level. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 25.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while cheddar cheese export volumes finished 15.7% higher. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese export volumes was only the second experienced throughout the past nine months and the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 1.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have increased an additional 2.2% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Mexico and South Korea were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Aug ’20, combining to account for half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while cheese export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia finished most significantly lower.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 13.2% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Export Volumes Each Finish Higher on a YOY Basis
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 54.4% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the seven most recently experienced YOY increases. The Aug ’20 YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the second largest experienced throughout the past 41 months on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month’s growth rate.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 30.0% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have rebounded by 12.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season, however.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 11.5% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Aug ’20 WPC export volumes remained 9.0% below three year average seasonal levels.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 28.9% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 17.8% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Aug ’20, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 43.3% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 34.7% YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished 34.7% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the 11th experienced throughout the past 12 months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 29.0% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Aug ’20, accounting for a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for over half of the total Aug ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to China, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 11.4% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 70.8% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Aug ’20 while butter export volumes as a percentage of production finished slightly lower. Dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production increased most significantly from the previous year, followed by NFDM/SMP export volumes.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 16.4% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Aug ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.6% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Aug ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 19.7% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the tenth consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the ten most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 14.7% and reaching the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past seven years. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 12.5% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Aug ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined seasonally from the previous month while finishing 0.3% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the sixth experienced in a row. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 4.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the first time in the past eight months during Aug ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 28th consecutive month.