U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Oct ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined by 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Aug ’20, increasing by 1.1%. Pork import volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 24 consecutive months prior to increasing throughout three of the past four months through August. The increase in pork export volumes more than offset the increase in import volumes, resulting in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 4.1% YOY during Aug ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the 16th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 25.8% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative Despite Exports Increasing YOY
U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Aug ’20, finishing up 2.4% and reaching a six month high level, overall. YOY increases in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Canada have increased most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Aug ’20 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined from the 15 year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 32.0% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in beef & veal import volumes was the third experienced in a row. Beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the sixth consecutive month during Aug ’20, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined to a negative level heading into the final month of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Increases on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Four Months, Finishes up 1.1%
U.S. broiler export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months throughout Aug ’20, increasing by 2.2%. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while export volumes destined to Cuba and Angola declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Cuba and Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Aug ’20, finishing up 66.6%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Aug ’20 imports amounted to just 2.8% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY increase in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 1.1% higher on a YOY basis during Aug ’20. The YOY increase in broiler net trade was the first experienced throughout the past four months.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased by an additional 2.1% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing down 53.1 million pounds, or 5.4%. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout the month of March, prior to decelerating throughout the next several months.
- U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the 16th consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 4.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Pork export volumes increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by continued growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.
- U.S. beef & veal export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months throughout Aug ’20 however net beef & veal trade remained at a negative level for the sixth consecutive month.
- U.S. net broiler trade increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, finishing up 1.1%.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined by 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Aug ’20, increasing by 1.1%. Pork import volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 24 consecutive months prior to increasing throughout three of the past four months through August. The increase in pork export volumes more than offset the increase in import volumes, resulting in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 4.1% YOY during Aug ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the 16th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year. ’19-’20 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 25.8% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains Negative Despite Exports Increasing YOY
U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Aug ’20, finishing up 2.4% and reaching a six month high level, overall. YOY increases in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Canada have increased most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Aug ’20 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined from the 15 year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 32.0% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in beef & veal import volumes was the third experienced in a row. Beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the sixth consecutive month during Aug ’20, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level.
’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels. ’19-’20 YTD net beef & veal trade has declined to a negative level heading into the final month of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Increases on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Four Months, Finishes up 1.1%
U.S. broiler export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months throughout Aug ’20, increasing by 2.2%. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while export volumes destined to Cuba and Angola declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while shipments destined to Cuba and Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Aug ’20, finishing up 66.6%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Aug ’20 imports amounted to just 2.8% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY increase in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 1.1% higher on a YOY basis during Aug ’20. The YOY increase in broiler net trade was the first experienced throughout the past four months.
’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season. ’19-’20 YTD net broiler trade has increased by an additional 2.1% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing down 53.1 million pounds, or 5.4%. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout the month of March, prior to decelerating throughout the next several months.