U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Oct ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 2.2% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 19.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY decline in domestic demand. Domestic demand has declined on a skim-solids basis over ten consecutive months through August.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.3% heading into the final month of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 9.2% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 9.2% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in butter commercial disappearance was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. Domestic butter demand declined 9.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.8% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 1.5% heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the previous month but remaining slightly below recent 26 year high levels. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 0.5% YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past four months. American cheese disappearance declined 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 1.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.8% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.4% heading into the final month of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a five month low level but remained at a record high seasonal level for the month of August.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Seven Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 1.1% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 1.1% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, reaching a seven year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in dry whey commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic dry whey demand declined 35.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 54.4% YOY increase in export demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through August while domestic demand has declined over five consecutive months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 10.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.0% heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks reaching a 30 month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 9.6% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 9.6% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months. Domestic WPC demand declined 29.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 11.5% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 31.0% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks reaching a 27 month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, up 12.8% YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 12.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 34.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.9% YOY decline in domestic demand. The YOY decline in domestic NFDM/SMP demand was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.6%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 3.8% heading into the final month of the production season.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks declining to an eight month low level.
On an absolute basis, Aug ’20 domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly for dry whey, followed closely by butter and cheese. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined to a four year seasonal low level on a milk-fat basis throughout Aug ’20 but remained at a record high seasonal level on a skim-solids basis. Domestic demand declined on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined to a four year seasonal low level throughout Aug ’20 while cheese commercial disappearance declined to a three year seasonal low level. Aug ’20 whey protein concentrate and dry whey disappearance finished at four and seven year seasonal low levels, respectively. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance reached a record high seasonal level, however, despite domestic demand remaining lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Aug ’20, finishing up 2.2% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 19.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY decline in domestic demand. Domestic demand has declined on a skim-solids basis over ten consecutive months through August.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.3% heading into the final month of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 9.2% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 9.2% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in butter commercial disappearance was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. Domestic butter demand declined 9.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.8% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 1.5% heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the previous month but remaining slightly below recent 26 year high levels. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 0.5% YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’20, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past four months. American cheese disappearance declined 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.5% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 1.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.8% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.4% heading into the final month of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a five month low level but remained at a record high seasonal level for the month of August.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Seven Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 1.1% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 1.1% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, reaching a seven year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in dry whey commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic dry whey demand declined 35.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 54.4% YOY increase in export demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through August while domestic demand has declined over five consecutive months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 10.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.0% heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks reaching a 30 month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 9.6% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 9.6% on a YOY basis during Aug ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months. Domestic WPC demand declined 29.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 11.5% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 31.0% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks reaching a 27 month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, up 12.8% YOY
Aug ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 12.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 34.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.9% YOY decline in domestic demand. The YOY decline in domestic NFDM/SMP demand was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.6%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 3.8% heading into the final month of the production season.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Aug ’20, resulting in stocks declining to an eight month low level.
On an absolute basis, Aug ’20 domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly for dry whey, followed closely by butter and cheese. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.