U.S. Milk Production Update – Oct ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 14 of the past 15 months through Sep ’20. The 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a 30 month high level throughout Sep ’20.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+12.3%), followed by Indiana (+9.0%) and Colorado (+7.8%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Vermont (-5.5%), Florida (-3.7%) and Arizona (-2.2%). Wisconsin milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for just the third time in the past 11 months, finishing 0.7% above previous year levels. Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month throughout Sep ’20, finishing up 3.2%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis. California accounted for 18.4% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Sep ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 2.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Sep ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Sep ’20 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Idaho, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Vermont.
The Aug ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 1,000 head higher than levels previous stated while the Sep ’20 figure increased an additional 5,000 head, reaching a five month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.366 million head, finishing 33,000 head above the previous year but remaining 72,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
U.S. milk per cow yields finished 2.0% above previous year levels, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 58th time in the past 59 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past six months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 2.5% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.7% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in the Texas, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Kansas and South Dakota milk cow herds more than offset declines in the Wisconsin, Arizona, Vermont and Georgia milk cow herds throughout Sep ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Idaho and South Dakota, while Wisconsin experienced the largest YOY decline in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 14th time in the past 15 months, finishing 2.3% above the previous year and reaching a record high seasonal level. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Idaho.
- The Aug ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 1,000 head higher than levels previously stated while the Sep ’20 figure increased an additional 5,000 head, reaching a five month high level. Milk cow herd figures finished 33,000 head above the previous year but remained 72,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, finishing higher for the 58th time in the past 59 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past six months.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 14 of the past 15 months through Sep ’20. The 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a 30 month high level throughout Sep ’20.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+12.3%), followed by Indiana (+9.0%) and Colorado (+7.8%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Vermont (-5.5%), Florida (-3.7%) and Arizona (-2.2%). Wisconsin milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for just the third time in the past 11 months, finishing 0.7% above previous year levels. Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month throughout Sep ’20, finishing up 3.2%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past two years on a percentage basis. California accounted for 18.4% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Sep ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 2.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Sep ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Sep ’20 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Texas and Idaho, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Vermont.
The Aug ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 1,000 head higher than levels previous stated while the Sep ’20 figure increased an additional 5,000 head, reaching a five month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.366 million head, finishing 33,000 head above the previous year but remaining 72,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
U.S. milk per cow yields finished 2.0% above previous year levels, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 58th time in the past 59 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past six months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 2.5% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.7% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in the Texas, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Kansas and South Dakota milk cow herds more than offset declines in the Wisconsin, Arizona, Vermont and Georgia milk cow herds throughout Sep ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Idaho and South Dakota, while Wisconsin experienced the largest YOY decline in their milk cow herds throughout the month.