U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Sep ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined 8.4% from the previous month, reaching a five month low level and finishing 3.8% below previous year figures. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 7.2 million pounds, or 8.4%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 2.1%. Dry whey production declined 17.3% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, finishing lower for the second consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 5.5% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finish Down 7.0% YOY
Sep ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 13.8% from the previous month, reaching a ten month low level and finishing 7.0% below previous year figures. NFDM stocks reached a four year seasonal low level for the month of September. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was just the second experienced throughout the past eight months. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 37.3 million pounds, or 13.8%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in stocks of 21.5 million pounds, or 9.4%. NFDM production increased 5.5% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 10.2% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 0.9%
Sep ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to an eight month low level but remained 0.9% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the eighth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the eight month period.
- U.S. dry whey stocks declined 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past five months
- U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined to a four year seasonal low level throughout Sep ’20, finishing 7.0% lower on a YOY basis.
According to the USDA, Sep ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined 8.4% from the previous month, reaching a five month low level and finishing 3.8% below previous year figures. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the first experienced throughout the past five months. The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 7.2 million pounds, or 8.4%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 2.1%. Dry whey production declined 17.3% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, finishing lower for the second consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 5.5% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finish Down 7.0% YOY
Sep ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 13.8% from the previous month, reaching a ten month low level and finishing 7.0% below previous year figures. NFDM stocks reached a four year seasonal low level for the month of September. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was just the second experienced throughout the past eight months. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 37.3 million pounds, or 13.8%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in stocks of 21.5 million pounds, or 9.4%. NFDM production increased 5.5% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Sep ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 10.2% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 0.9%
Sep ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to an eight month low level but remained 0.9% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the eighth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the eight month period.