U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Sep ’20, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes. Canada and Saudi Arabia combined to account for over three quarters of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.
Butterfat export volumes destined to China declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to South Korea, while butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia remained most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 3.6% and 57.8%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 15.9% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 4.2% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes increased 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 59.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese export volumes was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 29 months on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 1.7% on a YOY basis while ’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased an additional 2.4%, reaching a six year high level.
South Korea, Mexico and Japan were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Sep ’20, combining to account for half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Australia, while cheese export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 11.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Export Volumes Each Finish Higher on a YOY Basis
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 52.3% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the eight most recently experienced YOY increases.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 30.0% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded by 15.6% on a YOY basis.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 24.5% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months. WPC export volumes reached a 15 month high level, overall.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 28.9% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes rebounded by 18.4% on a YOY basis.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Sep ’20, accounting for over 40% of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to the Philippines finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 56.3% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 2.0% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Decline YOY for Just the Second Time in 13 Months, Finish Down 5.9%
Sep ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined 5.9% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for just the second time in the past 13 months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, NFDM/SMP export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, finishing 16.9% above three year average seasonal figures.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes rebounded by 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Sep ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for over half of the total Sep ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes.
YOY declines in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while export volumes destined to the Philippines finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 15.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 70.5% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese and dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Sep ’20 however butter and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished lower.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 16.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Sep ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.6% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Sep ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 7.9% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 11th consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the 11 most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 5.2% and reaching a seven year seasonal high level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 annual figures rebounded by 11.8% on a YOY basis.
Sep ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 3.3% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the seventh consecutive month. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 annual figures declined 4.5% on a YOY basis.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the second consecutive month throughout Sep ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 29th consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months throughout Sep ’20, declining by 7.3%. Net butter trade remained at a negative level for the 29th consecutive month.
- U.S. cheese export volumes increased 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level, as cheddar cheese export volumes increased at a 29 month high growth rate. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 52.3% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, reaching a seven year high seasonal level, while whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 24.5% YOY throughout the month.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes declined 5.9% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for just the second time in the past 13 months.
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Sep ’20, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes. Canada and Saudi Arabia combined to account for over three quarters of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.
Butterfat export volumes destined to China declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to South Korea, while butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia remained most significantly higher.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 3.6% and 57.8%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 15.9% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 4.2% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes increased 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 59.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese export volumes was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 29 months on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 1.7% on a YOY basis while ’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased an additional 2.4%, reaching a six year high level.
South Korea, Mexico and Japan were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Sep ’20, combining to account for half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Australia, while cheese export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 11.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Export Volumes Each Finish Higher on a YOY Basis
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 52.3% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the eight most recently experienced YOY increases.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 30.0% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded by 15.6% on a YOY basis.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 24.5% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months. WPC export volumes reached a 15 month high level, overall.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 28.9% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes rebounded by 18.4% on a YOY basis.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Sep ’20, accounting for over 40% of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to the Philippines finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 56.3% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 2.0% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Decline YOY for Just the Second Time in 13 Months, Finish Down 5.9%
Sep ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined 5.9% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for just the second time in the past 13 months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, NFDM/SMP export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, finishing 16.9% above three year average seasonal figures.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes rebounded by 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Sep ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for over half of the total Sep ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes.
YOY declines in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam, while export volumes destined to the Philippines finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 15.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 70.5% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese and dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Sep ’20 however butter and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished lower.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 16.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Sep ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.6% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Sep ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 7.9% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 11th consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the 11 most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 5.2% and reaching a seven year seasonal high level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 annual figures rebounded by 11.8% on a YOY basis.
Sep ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 3.3% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the seventh consecutive month. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 annual figures declined 4.5% on a YOY basis.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the second consecutive month throughout Sep ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 29th consecutive month.