U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Placements in feedlots declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Oct ‘20, finishing down 11.0% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in placements was greater than average analyst expectations of an 8.9% decline. YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 800 pounds or more (-17.8%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (-10.1%), 600-699 pounds (-8.3%) and 600 pounds or less (-5.0%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 6.6% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, reaching a record low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the first experienced throughout the past six months. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.4% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 annual placements rebounded by 0.2%.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 14.8% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past four months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 1.6%.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. The YOY decline in marketings was slightly below average analyst expectations of a 0.2% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 annual marketings declined by 2.9% on a YOY basis.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Nov 1st finished 1.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level but finishing slightly below analyst expectations.
- Placements in feedlots declined 11.0% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level and finishing significantly below analyst expectations.
- Marketings of fed cattle declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. The YOY decline in marketings was slightly below analyst expectations.
Placements in feedlots declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Oct ‘20, finishing down 11.0% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in placements was greater than average analyst expectations of an 8.9% decline. YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 800 pounds or more (-17.8%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (-10.1%), 600-699 pounds (-8.3%) and 600 pounds or less (-5.0%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 6.6% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, reaching a record low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the first experienced throughout the past six months. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.4% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 annual placements rebounded by 0.2%.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 14.8% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past four months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 1.6%.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. The YOY decline in marketings was slightly below average analyst expectations of a 0.2% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 annual marketings declined by 2.9% on a YOY basis.