U.S. Dairy Product Production Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy product production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Cheese – Production Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 0.6% YOY
U.S. cheese production finished 0.6% lower on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese production was the tenth experienced throughout the past 13 months. YOY declines in production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (-2.2%) and Western U.S. (-3.0%) more than offset an increase in Central U.S. (+2.1%) production.
Other-than-cheddar cheese production declined 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY increase in cheddar cheese production. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese production was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.
’18-’19 annual cheese production increased 1.7% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record, as a 2.6% YOY increase in other-than-cheddar cheese more than offset a 0.5% YOY decline in cheddar cheese production. Cheddar cheese production remained at the second highest annual level on record, however. ’19-’20 annual cheese production remained flat on a YOY basis as a 1.1% YOY increase in cheddar cheese production offset a 0.4% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese production.
Dry Whey – Production Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 11.8% YOY
U.S. dry whey production declined 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey production was the third experienced in a row. YOY declines in production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (-5.3%) and Western U.S. (-32.7%) more than offset an increase in Atlantic U.S. (+8.0%) production.
Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production finished higher on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 17 months during Oct ’20, increasing by 2.5%. Combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI remained 6.7% lower on a YOY basis throughout the month, however.
’18-’19 annual dry whey production declined 5.2% YOY, reaching a four year low level, while combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined 4.0%, finishing at a three year low. ’19-’20 annual dry whey production rebounded by 1.1% on a YOY basis however combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined by 0.8%.
NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 8.6% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production increased 4.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM production was the third experienced in a row. Higher YOY NFDM production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (+42.2%) more than offset reductions in Atlantic U.S. (-1.8%) and Western U.S. (-4.6%) production throughout the month.
Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Oct ’20, increasing by 20.7% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Combined production of NFDM and SMP finished 8.6% above previous year levels, increasing on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level.
’18-’19 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 0.1% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record. SMP production increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the period, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY decline in NFDM production. ’19-’20 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased by an additional 5.2% on a YOY basis on a 3.2% YOY increase in NFDM production and an 11.7% YOY increase in SMP production.
Overall, skim milk powder increased most significantly YOY on a percentage basis during Oct ’20, followed by total powder production, while dry whey production declined most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.
- Oct ’20 U.S. butter production finished 1.2% higher on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month.
- Oct ’20 U.S. cheese production finished 0.6% lower on a YOY basis, despite continued increases in cheddar cheese production, while dry whey production finished lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, declining by 11.8%.
- Combined production of U.S. nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder increased 8.6% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, remaining at a record high seasonal level. Nonfat dry milk production increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month, reaching a three year seasonal high level, while skim milk powder production increased to a seven year high seasonal level.
Cheese – Production Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 0.6% YOY
U.S. cheese production finished 0.6% lower on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese production was the tenth experienced throughout the past 13 months. YOY declines in production experienced throughout the Atlantic U.S. (-2.2%) and Western U.S. (-3.0%) more than offset an increase in Central U.S. (+2.1%) production.
Other-than-cheddar cheese production declined 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY increase in cheddar cheese production. The YOY increase in cheddar cheese production was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.
’18-’19 annual cheese production increased 1.7% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record, as a 2.6% YOY increase in other-than-cheddar cheese more than offset a 0.5% YOY decline in cheddar cheese production. Cheddar cheese production remained at the second highest annual level on record, however. ’19-’20 annual cheese production remained flat on a YOY basis as a 1.1% YOY increase in cheddar cheese production offset a 0.4% YOY decline in other-than-cheddar cheese production.
Dry Whey – Production Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 11.8% YOY
U.S. dry whey production declined 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey production was the third experienced in a row. YOY declines in production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (-5.3%) and Western U.S. (-32.7%) more than offset an increase in Atlantic U.S. (+8.0%) production.
Combined whey protein concentrate (WPC) and whey protein isolate (WPI) production finished higher on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 17 months during Oct ’20, increasing by 2.5%. Combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI remained 6.7% lower on a YOY basis throughout the month, however.
’18-’19 annual dry whey production declined 5.2% YOY, reaching a four year low level, while combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined 4.0%, finishing at a three year low. ’19-’20 annual dry whey production rebounded by 1.1% on a YOY basis however combined production of dry whey, WPC and WPI declined by 0.8%.
NFDM/SMP – Combined Production Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 8.6% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) production increased 4.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM production was the third experienced in a row. Higher YOY NFDM production experienced throughout the Central U.S. (+42.2%) more than offset reductions in Atlantic U.S. (-1.8%) and Western U.S. (-4.6%) production throughout the month.
Production of skim milk powder (SMP), which is more suited to the requirements of most global markets, finished higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Oct ’20, increasing by 20.7% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Combined production of NFDM and SMP finished 8.6% above previous year levels, increasing on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level.
’18-’19 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased 0.1% YOY, reaching the highest annual level on record. SMP production increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the period, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY decline in NFDM production. ’19-’20 annual combined production of NFDM and SMP increased by an additional 5.2% on a YOY basis on a 3.2% YOY increase in NFDM production and an 11.7% YOY increase in SMP production.
Overall, skim milk powder increased most significantly YOY on a percentage basis during Oct ’20, followed by total powder production, while dry whey production declined most significantly on a percentage basis throughout the month.