U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Oct ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Canada and Bahrain combined to account for nearly two thirds of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Bahrain increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, while butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 6.2% and 41.3%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 4.6% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 12.8% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes declined 12.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past six months. Cheddar cheese export volumes declined 10.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 13.1% lower YOY. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 1.7% on a YOY basis while ’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased an additional 2.4%, reaching a six year high level.
Mexico, South Korea and Japan were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Oct ’20, combining to account for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while cheese export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly higher.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 8.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Exports Each Reach Record High Seasonal Levels
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Oct ’20, finishing up 145.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 20 years on a percentage basis. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the nine most recently experienced YOY increases.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 30.0% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded by 15.6% on a YOY basis.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 20.0% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, also reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in WPC export volumes was the fourth experienced in a row. WPC export volumes reached a 29 month high level, overall.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 28.9% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes rebounded by 18.4% on a YOY basis.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Oct ’20, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 81.0% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 0.3% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 8.6% YOY
Oct ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 8.6% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes rebounded by 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Oct ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for over half of the total Oct ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to China, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 16.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 67.8% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. dry whey and butterfat export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Oct ’20 however NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished flat YOY while cheese export volumes as a percentage of production finished lower.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Oct ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.7% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Oct ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 18.4% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 12th consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the 12 most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month during Oct ’20, finishing up 13.2% and reaching a four year seasonal high level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 annual figures rebounded by 11.8% on a YOY basis.
Oct ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 2.6% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the eighth consecutive month. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 annual figures declined 4.5% on a YOY basis.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the third consecutive month throughout Oct ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 30th consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months throughout Oct ’20, increasing by 17.1% but remaining significantly below three year average seasonal figures. Net butter trade remained at a negative level for the 30th consecutive month.
- U.S. cheese export volumes declined 12.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a five year low seasonal level. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 145.0% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, however, reaching a record high seasonal level, while whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 20.0% YOY throughout the month, also reaching a record high seasonal level.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased 8.6% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level.
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Oct ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Canada and Bahrain combined to account for nearly two thirds of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Bahrain increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, while butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 6.2% and 41.3%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 4.6% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 12.8% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes declined 12.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past six months. Cheddar cheese export volumes declined 10.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 13.1% lower YOY. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 1.7% on a YOY basis while ’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased an additional 2.4%, reaching a six year high level.
Mexico, South Korea and Japan were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Oct ’20, combining to account for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while cheese export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly higher.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 8.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Exports Each Reach Record High Seasonal Levels
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Oct ’20, finishing up 145.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 20 years on a percentage basis. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the nine most recently experienced YOY increases.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 30.0% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded by 15.6% on a YOY basis.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 20.0% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, also reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in WPC export volumes was the fourth experienced in a row. WPC export volumes reached a 29 month high level, overall.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 28.9% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes rebounded by 18.4% on a YOY basis.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Oct ’20, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 81.0% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 0.3% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 8.6% YOY
Oct ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 8.6% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes rebounded by 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Oct ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for over half of the total Oct ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, followed by volumes destined to China, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 16.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 67.8% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. dry whey and butterfat export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Oct ’20 however NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished flat YOY while cheese export volumes as a percentage of production finished lower.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Oct ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.7% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Oct ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 18.4% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 12th consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the 12 most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month during Oct ’20, finishing up 13.2% and reaching a four year seasonal high level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 annual figures rebounded by 11.8% on a YOY basis.
Oct ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 2.6% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the eighth consecutive month. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 annual figures declined 4.5% on a YOY basis.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the third consecutive month throughout Oct ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 30th consecutive month.