U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months during Oct ’20, finishing down 0.2% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic demand declined 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.1% YOY increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic skim-solids demand was the 11th experienced throughout the past 12 months.
’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.5%.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 4.8% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.8% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in butter commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic butter demand declined 5.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 30.7% increase in export demand.
’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 2.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a nine month low level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 2.5% YOY
Oct ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cheese commercial disappearance was the second experienced throughout the past three months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.4% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 12.8% lower.
’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance declined 0.3% but remained at the second highest annual figure on record.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the sixth consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a ten month low level, overall.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines 2.8% YOY on Continued Weak Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 2.8% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past there months. Domestic dry whey demand declined 47.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 145.0% YOY increase in export demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through October while domestic demand has declined over seven consecutive months.
’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.7% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 5.4%.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a nine month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 3.4% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the eighth experienced throughout the past ten months. Domestic WPC demand declined 33.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 20.0% YOY increase in export demand. WPC exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 of the past 13 months through October while domestic demand has declined over 13 of the past 14 months.
’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.0%, reaching an eight year low level.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a 14 month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines 7.2% YOY on Continued Weak Domestic Demand
Oct ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 7.2% on a YOY basis but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 53.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 8.6% YOY increase in export demand. NFDM/SMP exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 of the past 14 months through October while domestic demand has declined over ten of the past 12 months.
’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 5.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 25.4%, however, reaching a 20 year low level.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Oct ’20 declines in domestic commercial disappearance were widespread across products and led by dry whey, followed by NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey, followed by NFDM/SMP, while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 1.1% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing down 1.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk finished higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, increasing by 4.0% and reaching a 12 year high seasonal level, however fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 15.1% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest seasonal level on record.
’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 0.6%, as whole milk sales increased to a 13 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 60% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing down 0.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 0.1% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained 0.4% below three year average annual figures.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished lower YOY on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Oct ’20. Domestic demand declined 0.9% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 4.0% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- U.S. butter, cheese and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance all declined to three year low seasonal levels throughout Oct ’20 while dry whey and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance also finished lower on a YOY basis throughout the month, despite higher export volumes.
- U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing down 1.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk reached a 12 year high seasonal level however fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, finishing down 15.1% YOY.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months during Oct ’20, finishing down 0.2% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic demand declined 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.1% YOY increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic skim-solids demand was the 11th experienced throughout the past 12 months.
’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.5%.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 4.8% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 4.8% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in butter commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic butter demand declined 5.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 30.7% increase in export demand.
’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 2.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a nine month low level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 2.5% YOY
Oct ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cheese commercial disappearance was the second experienced throughout the past three months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.4% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 12.8% lower.
’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance declined 0.3% but remained at the second highest annual figure on record.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the sixth consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a ten month low level, overall.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines 2.8% YOY on Continued Weak Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 2.8% on a YOY basis during Oct ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past there months. Domestic dry whey demand declined 47.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 145.0% YOY increase in export demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through October while domestic demand has declined over seven consecutive months.
’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.7% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 5.4%.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a nine month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 3.4% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the eighth experienced throughout the past ten months. Domestic WPC demand declined 33.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 20.0% YOY increase in export demand. WPC exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 of the past 13 months through October while domestic demand has declined over 13 of the past 14 months.
’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.0%, reaching an eight year low level.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a 14 month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines 7.2% YOY on Continued Weak Domestic Demand
Oct ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 7.2% on a YOY basis but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 53.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 8.6% YOY increase in export demand. NFDM/SMP exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 of the past 14 months through October while domestic demand has declined over ten of the past 12 months.
’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 5.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 25.4%, however, reaching a 20 year low level.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Oct ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Oct ’20 declines in domestic commercial disappearance were widespread across products and led by dry whey, followed by NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey, followed by NFDM/SMP, while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 1.1% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing down 1.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk finished higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, increasing by 4.0% and reaching a 12 year high seasonal level, however fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 15.1% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest seasonal level on record.
’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 0.6%, as whole milk sales increased to a 13 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 60% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also remained lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing down 0.1% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 0.1% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained 0.4% below three year average annual figures.