EU-28 Milk Production Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Oct ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 20th experienced throughout the past 21 months. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions improved throughout the months of June and July however extreme heat returned throughout the month of September. More recently, autumn weather conditions have returned to favorable levels for milk production.
Oct ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Poland and Belgium, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by France.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Cyprus (+11.4%), followed by Malta (+9.4%) and Bulgaria (+8.6%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Austria (-2.0%), followed by Germany (-0.7%) and France (-0.7%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Oct ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 2.5% on a YOY basis. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Oct ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months during Sep ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.2%. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout Germany, followed by the United Kingdom and France. Sep ’20 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout Ireland.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.
- Oct ’20 EU-28 milk production finished 1.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 20th experienced throughout the past 21 months.
- Oct ’20 YOY increases in milk production were led by Ireland, while declines were most significant throughout Germany and France. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months during Sep ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.2%.
The Oct ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 20th experienced throughout the past 21 months. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions improved throughout the months of June and July however extreme heat returned throughout the month of September. More recently, autumn weather conditions have returned to favorable levels for milk production.
Oct ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Poland and Belgium, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by France.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Cyprus (+11.4%), followed by Malta (+9.4%) and Bulgaria (+8.6%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Austria (-2.0%), followed by Germany (-0.7%) and France (-0.7%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Oct ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 2.5% on a YOY basis. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Oct ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months during Sep ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 1.2%. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout Germany, followed by the United Kingdom and France. Sep ’20 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout Ireland.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.