U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Jan ’21
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Nov ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined to a ten month low level while finishing 14.9% below previous year figures, remaining at a four year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the third experienced in a row.
The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 0.8 million pounds, or 1.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in dry whey stocks of 1.3 million pounds, or 2.1%. Dry whey production declined 5.9% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing lower for the fourth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 14.9% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase 12.4% YOY but Remain Below Three Year Average Seasonal Levels
Nov ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased seasonally to a three month high level while finishing 12.4% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, NFDM stocks remained 9.4% below three year average seasonal figures, finishing lower for the fourth consecutive month.
The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 15.1 million pounds, or 6.4%, was largely consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in stocks of 11.2 million pounds, or 6.7%. NFDM production increased 9.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 11.1% above previous year figures, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 6.1%
Nov ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained 6.1% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. Combined stocks have finished at record high seasonal levels over ten consecutive months through November. The Nov ’20 YOY increase in combined stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis.
- U.S. dry whey stocks finished 14.9% below previous year figures throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a four year low seasonal level.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks finished 12.4% above previous year figures throughout Nov ’20 but remained below three year average seasonal levels for the fourth consecutive month.
According to the USDA, Nov ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined to a ten month low level while finishing 14.9% below previous year figures, remaining at a four year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the third experienced in a row.
The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 0.8 million pounds, or 1.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in dry whey stocks of 1.3 million pounds, or 2.1%. Dry whey production declined 5.9% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing lower for the fourth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 14.9% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase 12.4% YOY but Remain Below Three Year Average Seasonal Levels
Nov ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased seasonally to a three month high level while finishing 12.4% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, NFDM stocks remained 9.4% below three year average seasonal figures, finishing lower for the fourth consecutive month.
The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 15.1 million pounds, or 6.4%, was largely consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal increase in stocks of 11.2 million pounds, or 6.7%. NFDM production increased 9.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing higher for the fourth consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 11.1% above previous year figures, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 6.1%
Nov ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained 6.1% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. Combined stocks have finished at record high seasonal levels over ten consecutive months through November. The Nov ’20 YOY increase in combined stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis.