U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Jan ’21
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Nov ’20, accounting for over half of the total export volumes. Canada, South Korea and Mexico combined to account for over three quarters of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by shipments destined to Canada and South Korea, while butterfat export volumes destined to Guyana finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 6.8% and 3.5%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 0.9% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Remain at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 15.8% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes declined 15.8% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a five year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in cheese export volumes was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. Cheddar cheese export volumes declined 39.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 13.0% lower YOY. ’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a six year high level.
Mexico, South Korea and Japan were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Nov ’20, combining to account for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while cheese export volumes destined to Japan finished most significantly higher. The decline in cheese exports destined to Mexico accounted for nearly three quarters of the total YOY decline in shipments experienced throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 4.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Exports Each Reach Three Year High Seasonal Levels
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Nov ’20, finishing up 35.7% and reaching a three year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the ten most recently experienced YOY increases. ’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded 15.6% on a YOY basis from the 15 year low level experienced throughout the previous production season.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 9.5% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, also reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in WPC export volumes was the fifth experienced in a row. ’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes increased 18.4% on a YOY basis.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Nov ’20, accounting for over two fifths of the total export volumes. China and Mexico combined to account for over half of all whey export volumes throughout the month.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 97.4% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 0.1% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finish Down 7.7%
Nov ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined 7.7% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months. NFDM/SMP export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months through Aug ’20, prior to declining over two of the most recent three months of data. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Nov ’20 NFDM/SMP export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes increased 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Nov ’20, accounting for two fifths of the total export volumes. Mexico and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Nov ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes.
YOY declines in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam and the Philippines, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 13.9% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 52.7% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. butterfat, cheese and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished below previous year figures during Nov ’20 while dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production finished higher.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Nov ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Nov ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to decline 5.5% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the first time in the past 13 months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 13 months during Nov ’20, finishing down 4.4%. ’19-’20 annual exports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 11.8% above previous year levels but remained below the ’17-’18 record high figures.
Nov ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 0.5% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the ninth consecutive month. ’19-’20 annual imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 4.5% below previous year levels.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the fourth consecutive month throughout Nov ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 31st consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes declined to a five year low seasonal level, finishing 3.4% lower on a YOY basis. Net butter trade remained at a negative level for the 31st consecutive month.
- U.S. cheese export volumes declined 15.8% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a five year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 35.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, however, reaching a three year high seasonal level, while whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 9.5% YOY throughout the month, also reaching a three year high seasonal level.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes declined 7.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20 but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record.
Canada was the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Nov ’20, accounting for over half of the total export volumes. Canada, South Korea and Mexico combined to account for over three quarters of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by shipments destined to Canada and South Korea, while butterfat export volumes destined to Guyana finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 6.8% and 3.5%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 0.9% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Remain at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 15.8% YOY
U.S. cheese export volumes declined 15.8% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a five year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in cheese export volumes was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis. Cheddar cheese export volumes declined 39.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 13.0% lower YOY. ’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a six year high level.
Mexico, South Korea and Japan were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Nov ’20, combining to account for nearly half of the total export volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while cheese export volumes destined to Japan finished most significantly higher. The decline in cheese exports destined to Mexico accounted for nearly three quarters of the total YOY decline in shipments experienced throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 4.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Exports Each Reach Three Year High Seasonal Levels
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Nov ’20, finishing up 35.7% and reaching a three year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the ten most recently experienced YOY increases. ’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded 15.6% on a YOY basis from the 15 year low level experienced throughout the previous production season.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 9.5% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, also reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in WPC export volumes was the fifth experienced in a row. ’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes increased 18.4% on a YOY basis.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Nov ’20, accounting for over two fifths of the total export volumes. China and Mexico combined to account for over half of all whey export volumes throughout the month.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 97.4% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 0.1% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finish Down 7.7%
Nov ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined 7.7% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months. NFDM/SMP export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months through Aug ’20, prior to declining over two of the most recent three months of data. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Nov ’20 NFDM/SMP export volumes remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes increased 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Nov ’20, accounting for two fifths of the total export volumes. Mexico and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Nov ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes.
YOY declines in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to Vietnam and the Philippines, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 13.9% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 52.7% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. butterfat, cheese and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished below previous year figures during Nov ’20 while dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production finished higher.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Nov ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Nov ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to decline 5.5% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the first time in the past 13 months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 13 months during Nov ’20, finishing down 4.4%. ’19-’20 annual exports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 11.8% above previous year levels but remained below the ’17-’18 record high figures.
Nov ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 0.5% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the ninth consecutive month. ’19-’20 annual imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 4.5% below previous year levels.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the fourth consecutive month throughout Nov ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 31st consecutive month.