U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jan ’21
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months during Nov ’20, finishing up 2.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished flat YOY. The YOY increase in domestic skim-solids demand was just the second experienced throughout the past 13 months.
’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.5%.
Butter – Disappearance Finishes Slightly Higher YOY, up 0.1%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 0.1% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20 but remained below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout November of 2019. Domestic butter demand increased 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY decline in export demand.
’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 2.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a ten month low level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 1.2% YOY
Nov ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in cheese commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.3% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 15.8% lower.
’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance declined 0.3% but remained at the second highest annual figure on record.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Reaches a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 5.4% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 5.4% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, reaching a six year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic dry whey demand declined 28.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 35.7% YOY increase in export demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through November while domestic demand has declined over eight consecutive months.
’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.7% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 5.4%.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a ten month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 6.0% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 6.0% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the ninth experienced throughout the past 11 months. Domestic WPC demand declined 26.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 9.5% YOY increase in export demand. WPC exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 of the past 14 months through November while domestic demand has declined over 14 of the past 15 months.
’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.0%, reaching an eight year low level.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the 14 month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 4.2% YOY
Nov ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 4.2% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 54.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.7% YOY decline in export demand. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP domestic demand was just the third experienced throughout the past 13 months while the YOY decline in export demand was just the third experienced throughout the past 15 months.
’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 5.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 25.4%, however, reaching a 20 year low level.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures for the second consecutive month during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three month high level.
Nov ’20 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by NFDM/SMP while declines were most significant for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey, while NFDM/SMP export demand finished most significantly lower.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 4.4% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Nov ’20, finishing down 4.4% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 17.9% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest seasonal level on record. The YOY decline in fat-free milk sales was the largest experienced on record on a percentage basis.
’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 0.6%, as whole milk sales increased to a 13 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 60% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Nov ’20, finishing down 5.0% and reaching a six year low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 0.1% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained 0.4% below three year average annual figures.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished higher YOY on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Nov ’20. Domestic demand increased 1.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 2.5% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance reached a record high seasonal level throughout Nov ’20 on strong domestic demand, while butter commercial disappearance also finished slightly higher YOY. Cheese and whey protein concentrate disappearance each remained at three year low seasonal levels throughout the month, however, while dry whey commercial disappearance declined to a six year low seasonal level.
- U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Nov ’20, finishing down 4.4% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, finishing 17.9% lower YOY.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months during Nov ’20, finishing up 2.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished flat YOY. The YOY increase in domestic skim-solids demand was just the second experienced throughout the past 13 months.
’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.5%.
Butter – Disappearance Finishes Slightly Higher YOY, up 0.1%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 0.1% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20 but remained below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout November of 2019. Domestic butter demand increased 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY decline in export demand.
’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 2.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a ten month low level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 1.2% YOY
Nov ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in cheese commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.3% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 15.8% lower.
’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance declined 0.3% but remained at the second highest annual figure on record.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Reaches a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 5.4% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 5.4% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, reaching a six year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic dry whey demand declined 28.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 35.7% YOY increase in export demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through November while domestic demand has declined over eight consecutive months.
’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.7% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 5.4%.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a ten month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 6.0% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 6.0% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in WPC commercial disappearance was the ninth experienced throughout the past 11 months. Domestic WPC demand declined 26.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 9.5% YOY increase in export demand. WPC exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 12 of the past 14 months through November while domestic demand has declined over 14 of the past 15 months.
’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.0%, reaching an eight year low level.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding slightly from the 14 month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 4.2% YOY
Nov ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 4.2% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 54.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.7% YOY decline in export demand. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP domestic demand was just the third experienced throughout the past 13 months while the YOY decline in export demand was just the third experienced throughout the past 15 months.
’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 5.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 25.4%, however, reaching a 20 year low level.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures for the second consecutive month during Nov ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three month high level.
Nov ’20 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by NFDM/SMP while declines were most significant for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey, while NFDM/SMP export demand finished most significantly lower.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 4.4% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Nov ’20, finishing down 4.4% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 17.9% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest seasonal level on record. The YOY decline in fat-free milk sales was the largest experienced on record on a percentage basis.
’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 0.6%, as whole milk sales increased to a 13 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 60% from levels experienced ten years ago.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Nov ’20, finishing down 5.0% and reaching a six year low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 0.1% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained 0.4% below three year average annual figures.