U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Jan ’21
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Dec ’20 U.S. butter stocks rebounded seasonally from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 44.4% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 28 year high seasonal level for the month of December. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 18th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 8.7% was largely consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal increase of 8.8% on a percentage basis but was significantly larger on an absolute basis (22.0 million pound increase compared to a ten year average increase of 11.0 million pounds). Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the eighth time in the past nine months, finishing up 42.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 5.7% Higher YOY
Dec ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased sharply from the previous month while finishing 5.7% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. American cheese stocks increased 6.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 4.3% above previous year levels. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 51.1 million pounds, or 3.8%, was the largest on record on an absolute basis, finishing significantly larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal increase of 11.4 million pounds, or 1.1%.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’20 U.S. cheese stocks finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 6.6%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Dec ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the tenth consecutive month throughout Nov ’20, finishing 6.2% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 8.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Dec ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available February 4th.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 18th consecutive month, finishing up 44.4% and reaching a 28 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis.
- U.S. cheese stocks finished 5.7% above previous year levels throughout Dec ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis.
According to the USDA, Dec ’20 U.S. butter stocks rebounded seasonally from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 44.4% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 28 year high seasonal level for the month of December. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 18th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 8.7% was largely consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal increase of 8.8% on a percentage basis but was significantly larger on an absolute basis (22.0 million pound increase compared to a ten year average increase of 11.0 million pounds). Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the eighth time in the past nine months, finishing up 42.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 5.7% Higher YOY
Dec ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased sharply from the previous month while finishing 5.7% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. American cheese stocks increased 6.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 4.3% above previous year levels. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 51.1 million pounds, or 3.8%, was the largest on record on an absolute basis, finishing significantly larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal increase of 11.4 million pounds, or 1.1%.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’20 U.S. cheese stocks finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 6.6%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Dec ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the tenth consecutive month throughout Nov ’20, finishing 6.2% above previous year levels. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 8.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Dec ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available February 4th.