Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 18^th time in the past 19 months throughout Jan ’21, finishing 1.6% above the previous year and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past seven months, however. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, while California milk production volumes declined most significantly from the previous year.
• The Dec ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 1,000 head lower than levels previously stated however the Jan ’21 figure increased 8,000 head, reaching a 25 year high level. Milk cow herd figures finished 85,000 head above the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’21, finishing higher for the 62^nd time in the past 63 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jan ’21 U.S. milk production volumes continued to increase seasonally from the previous month while finishing 1.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The month-over-month increase in production volumes of 1.7% was slightly smaller than the ten year average December – January seasonal increase in production of 2.1%. The smaller than typical seasonal increase in milk production volumes occurred despite previous month production levels being revised 0.5% below levels previously stated.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 18 of the past 19 months through Jan ’21. The Jan ’21 YOY increase in U.S. milk production volumes was the smallest largest experienced throughout the past seven months, however the 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a three year high level.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Indiana (+10.1%), followed by South Dakota (+9.6%), Minnesota (+5.7%) and Colorado (+5.7%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Florida (-5.1%), Virginia (-3.0%) and Vermont (-2.7%). Wisconsin milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing 3.1% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. Overall, 14 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Jan ’21, finishing down 0.7%. The YOY decline in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 months on a percentage basis. California milk production had finished higher on a YOY basis over 14 consecutive months, prior to declining over the two most recent months of data. Dec ’20 California milk production volumes were revised 2.2% below levels previously stated. California accounted for 18.3% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Six of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Jan ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 1.5% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Jan ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Jan ’21 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by Texas and Minnesota, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout California.

The Dec ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 1,000 head lower than levels previous stated however the Jan ’21 figure increased 8,000 head, reaching a 25 year high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.45 million head, finishing 85,000 head above the previous year.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.6% above previous year levels throughout Jan ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 62^nd time in the past 63 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.6% YOY.

Month-over-month increases in the Wisconsin, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Arizona and Indiana milk cow herds more than offset declines in the Pennsylvania, New York, Washington and Kansas milk cow herds throughout Jan ’21.

Jan ’21 YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Indiana, Michigan and South Dakota, while the Pennsylvania and Florida milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.