Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. net pork trade remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jan ’21, finishing down 11.5%. Pork export volumes declined by 8.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level. Net beef & veal trade finished at a positive level for the fourth consecutive month.
• U.S. net broiler trade finished 4.6% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net broiler trade was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Exports Finish Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Net Trade Remains Lower

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jan ’21, declining by 8.6% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Pork export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 18 consecutive months through Nov ’20, prior to declining over the most recent two months of available data. YOY declines in pork export volumes were led by volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while pork export volumes destined to the Philippines increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. A 28.5% YOY decline in pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset a 0.3% YOY increase in export volumes destined to all other countries.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have increased by 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while shipments destined to South Korea have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. pork import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jan ’21, finishing up 15.2%. The increase in pork import volumes, coupled with the decline in export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing down 11.5% YOY during Jan ’21. The YOY decline in net pork trade was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four and a half years on a percentage basis. Net pork trade had finished higher on a YOY basis over 18 consecutive months through Oct ’20, prior to declining over the three most recent months of available data. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Jan ’21 net pork trade remained at the second highest seasonal level on record.

’19-’20 annual net pork trade increased 25.4% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD net pork trade has declined by 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however.

Beef & Veal – Exports Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Net Trade Finishes Positive

U.S. beef & veal export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for fourth consecutive month during Jan ’21, increasing by 0.4% and remaining at a record high seasonal level. YOY increases in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan. U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to Japan and Mexico declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to Mexico have declined most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Jan ’21 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 8.1%. Beef & veal import volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through Oct ’20, prior to declining over the three most recent months of available data. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the fourth consecutive month during Jan ’21, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade remaining at a positive level.

’19-’20 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the first time in the past three years. ’20-’21 YTD net beef & veal trade has rebounded by 301.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a seven year high level.

Broilers – Net Trade Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes 4.6% Higher YOY

U.S. broiler export volumes finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months, increasing by 4.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Angola, while export volumes destined to Vietnam and Georgia declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Cuba and Georgia have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Jan ’21, declining by 15.6%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Jan ’21 imports amounted to just 1.7% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 4.6% higher on a YOY basis during Jan ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in broiler net trade was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months.

’19-’20 annual net broiler trade finished up 2.7% YOY, reaching a six year high level. ’20-’21 YTD net broiler trade increased by an additional 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high level.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Jan ’21, finishing down 19.8 million pounds, or 1.7%. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers had reached an eight and a half year high growth rate throughout Mar ’20, prior to decelerating throughout the final three quarters of the 2020 calendar year.