Executive Summary

EU-27+UK milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• EU-27+UK milk production volumes are projected to have declined 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’21, finishing lower for just the second time in the past 24 months.
• Jan ’21 YOY declines in milk production were led by France, followed by Germany and the Netherlands. Overall, 17 of the 28 countries experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month, however, despite total EU-27+UK production declining throughout the month.
• EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Dec ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 2.5% and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

According to Eurostat, Jan ’21 EU-27+UK milk production volumes are projected to have increased seasonally by 1.2% from the previous month but finished 0.8% lower on a YOY basis. EU-27+UK milk production volumes had finished at record high seasonal levels over seven consecutive months through the end of 2020, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the month of January. The December – January seasonal increase in production figures was the smallest experienced throughout 15 years of available data. Figures for the United Kingdom, Sweden and Luxembourg are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in production. The United Kingdom, Sweden and Luxembourg have accounted for 11.7% of total EU-27+UK production volumes throughout the past 12 months.

’19-’20 annual EU-27+UK milk production volumes increased 0.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD milk production volumes have increased by an additional 0.6% YOY throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

The Jan ’21 YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk production volumes was just the second experienced throughout the past 24 months and the largest experienced throughout the past three years on a percentage basis.

Jan ’21 YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by France, followed by Germany and the Netherlands, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by the United Kingdom (estimated based on the previous month growth rate).

YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by the Czech Republic (-3.7%), followed by France (-3.3%) and Finland (-2.5%), while increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+21.6%), followed by Greece (+5.4%) and Hungary (+5.2%).

Seven of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk production during Jan ’21, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states declining by a weighted average of 1.1% throughout the month. The top ten EU-27+UK milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-27+UK milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 0.8% on a YOY basis. Overall, 17 of the 28 countries experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Jan ’21, despite total EU-27+UK production declining throughout the month.

EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Dec ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 2.5% and reaching a seven year low seasonal level. Figures for the United Kingdom are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in production. The United Kingdom has accounted for 5.4% of total EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter throughout the past 12 months. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout the United Kingdom (estimated from the previous month), followed by the Netherlands and Austria.

’19-’20 annual EU-27+UK bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. The USDA has projected the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd to have declined 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.