Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached record high seasonal levels on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Feb ’21. Domestic demand increased 4.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis but declined by 1.7% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. butter and cheese commercial disappearance each reached record high seasonal levels throughout Feb ’21 while dry whey and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance each reached three year high seasonal levels. Whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance remained lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, however.
• U.S. fluid milk sales finished higher on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months throughout Feb ’21, increasing by 0.7% but remaining at the second lowest seasonal level on record. ’20-’21 YTD fluid milk sales remain down 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Reaches Record High Seasonal Levels on a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month throughout Feb ’21 when accounting for the previous year’s leap year, finishing up 4.9% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 4.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 17.9% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 1.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis has increased by an additional 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months throughout Feb ’21, finishing up 2.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month however export demand finished 17.2% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.4%. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has increased by an additional 1.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.

Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 26.5% YOY

U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 26.5% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 23.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, reaching a record high seasonal level, while export demand finished 120.4% higher YOY, reaching a seven year seasonal high.

’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 2.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD butter disappearance has increased by an additional 6.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.

U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Feb ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a six month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.

Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 2.1% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the second experienced in a row. American cheese disappearance increased 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, reaching a record high seasonal level, while other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 1.4% YOY, also reaching a record seasonal high. Domestic cheese demand increased 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 1.1% above previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance declined 0.2% but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by an additional 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures for the third consecutive month throughout Feb ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a nine month high level.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Reaches a Three Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 18.1% YOY

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 18.1% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in dry whey commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past five months. Domestic dry whey demand increased 9.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while dry whey export demand finished 26.3% above previous year levels. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 13 consecutive months through February while the YOY increase in domestic demand was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months.

’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.7% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 5.4%. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey disappearance has declined by 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures for the second consecutive month throughout Feb ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a five month high level.

WPC – Disappearance Remains Lower for the Fifth Consecutive Month, Down 0.9% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, finishing lower for the fifth consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand declined 42.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 30.3% YOY increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic WPC demand was the 17^th experienced throughout the past 18 months while the YOY increase in WPC export demand was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months.

’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.0%, reaching an eight year low level. ’20-’21 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.

U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Feb ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three month high level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains at a Three Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 13.0% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 13.0% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, remaining at a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced in a row. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 55.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month however export demand finished 36.1% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 5.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 25.4%, however, reaching a 20 year low level. ’20-’21 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has increased by an additional 5.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.

U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures for the fifth consecutive month throughout Feb ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a nine month high level.

Feb ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by butter, followed by cheese, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were widespread and led by NFDM/SMP.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Increase on a YOY Basis for the Second Time in Three Months, up 0.7%

U.S. fluid milk sales finished higher on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Feb ’21 when accounting for the previous month’s leap year, increasing by 0.7% but remaining at the second lowest seasonal level on record. Sales of whole milk finished flat on a YOY basis throughout the month, remaining at a 13 year high seasonal level, however sales of fat-free milk remained weak, declining by 4.3% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest seasonal level on record.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 0.7%, as whole milk sales increased to a 13 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 60% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’20-’21 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months during Feb ’21, finishing down 0.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 0.3% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained 0.1% below three year average annual figures. ’20-’21 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.