Executive Summary

EU-27+UK milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• EU-27+UK milk production volumes are projected to have declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’21, finishing lower for the second consecutive month.
• Feb ’21 YOY declines in milk production were led by Germany, followed by France, while production volumes increased most significantly from the previous year throughout Italy and Ireland. Overall, 15 of the 28 countries experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month, despite total EU-27+UK production declining slightly throughout the month.
• EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months during Jan ’21 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 11.9% and reaching a record low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

According to Eurostat, Feb ’21 EU-27+UK milk production volumes are projected to have increased seasonally to a seven month high level but remained 0.1% lower on a YOY basis when accounting for the previous year’s leap year. EU-27+UK milk production volumes had finished at record high seasonal levels over seven consecutive months through the end of 2020, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the months of January and February. Figures for the United Kingdom, Sweden and Luxembourg are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in production. The United Kingdom, Sweden and Luxembourg have accounted for 11.7% of total EU-27+UK production volumes throughout the past 12 months.

’19-’20 annual EU-27+UK milk production volumes increased 0.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD milk production volumes have increased by an additional 0.6% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

The Feb ’21 YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk production volumes was the second experienced in a row. EU-27+UK milk production volumes had declined on a YOY basis just once in the 23 month period ending Dec ’20, prior to finishing lower throughout the months of January and February.

Feb ’21 YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by France, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by the Italy, followed by Ireland.

YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by the Czech Republic (-2.9%), followed by Lithuania (-2.8%) and Finland (-2.8%), while increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+18.0%), followed by Ireland (+8.1%) and Hungary (+6.1%).

Five of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk production during Feb ’21, as production within the top ten milk producing member states declined by a weighted average of 0.1% throughout the month. The top ten EU-27+UK milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-27+UK milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 0.3% on a YOY basis. Overall, 15 of the 28 countries experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Feb ’21, despite total EU-27+UK production declining throughout the month.

EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months during Jan ’21 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 11.9% and reaching the lowest seasonal level on record. Figures for the United Kingdom are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in production. The United Kingdom has accounted for 5.4% of total EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter throughout the past 12 months. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout Germany, followed by the Netherlands and Poland.

’19-’20 annual EU-27+UK bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. The USDA has projected the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd to have declined 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of Apr – May ’20 were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.