Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Mar ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined 3.0% on a YOY basis but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record.
• U.S. pork production declined 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21 but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. A 5.6% YOY decline in the total number of hogs slaughtered more than offset a 1.0% YOY increase in average weights per head.
• U.S. beef production declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21 but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. A 1.2% YOY decline in the total number of cattle slaughtered more than offset a 0.3% YOY increase in average weights per head.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines 3.0% YOY but Remains High, Historically

According to the USDA, Mar ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined 3.0% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’21 red meat production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. Red meat production increased at a 35 year high growth rate throughout March of 2020 as slaughter rates were ramped up prior to COVID-19 related plant closures.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD red meat production has declined by 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 43^rd consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, although the most recent deviation from trendline remained significantly below the record high level experienced throughout Mar ’20.

Pork – Production Declines 4.7% YOY but Remains at the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record

Mar ’21 U.S. pork production declined 4.7% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’21 pork production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The Mar ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 5.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.0% YOY increase in average weights per head. The number of hogs slaughtered has declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Mar ’21.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD pork production has declined by 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.

Beef – Production Declines 1.2% YOY but Remains at the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record

Mar ’21 U.S. beef production declined 1.2% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’21 beef production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The Mar ’21 total number of cattle slaughtered declined 1.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.3% YOY increase in average weights per head. The number of cattle slaughtered has declined on a YOY basis over four of the past five months through Mar ’21.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD beef production has rebounded by 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent decline.