Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Mar ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased 0.7% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
• YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), while dairy cow slaughter rates finished most significantly below previous year levels throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada).
• Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd reaching a 25 year high level through Mar ’21. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the ’20-’21 production season, despite the recent increases.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Mar ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates reached a 14 month high level, finishing 0.7% higher on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days. The month-over-month increase in slaughter rates of 0.3% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal decline of 2.1%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 16 of 18 months through Jan ’21. More recently, dairy cow slaughter rates have finished slightly higher on a YOY basis throughout two consecutive months through Mar ’21. Despite increasing on a YOY basis, Mar ’21 dairy cow slaughter rates remained 0.9% below three year average seasonal levels. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the ’20-’21 production season, despite the recent increases.

Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd continuing to grow through Mar ’21. The Mar ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure increased 8,000 head from the previous month, reaching a 25 year high level and finishing 77,000 head above the previous year.

Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia). Slaughter rates declined most significantly on a month-over-month basis throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada).

YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas). Dairy cow slaughter rates declined most on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada).

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.