Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached record high seasonal levels on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Mar ’21. Domestic demand increased 1.6% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.2% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance each reached record high seasonal levels throughout Mar ’21 while dry whey and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance each reached three year high seasonal levels.
• U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months throughout Mar ’21, declining by 7.5% and reaching the second lowest seasonal level on record.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Reaches Record High Seasonal Levels on a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased YOY for the fifth consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, finishing up 2.5% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 23.0% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 1.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis has increased by an additional 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 11 months throughout Mar ’21, finishing up 5.7% and reaching a record high monthly level. Domestic demand increased 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 23.7% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.4%. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has increased by an additional 1.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 7.1% YOY

U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, reaching a record high seasonal level, while export demand finished 170.7% higher YOY, reaching a seven year seasonal high.

’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.6%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD butter disappearance has increased by an additional 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

U.S. butter production and import figures slightly outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Mar ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a seven month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.

Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 3.8% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the third experienced in a row. American cheese disappearance increased 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, reaching a record high seasonal level, while other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 3.6% YOY, also reaching a record seasonal high. Domestic cheese demand increased 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 10.7% above previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance declined 0.1% but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD cheese disappearance has rebounded by 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures for the fifth consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, resulting in stocks reaching an 11 month high level.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Reaches a Three Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 6.3% YOY

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 6.3% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in dry whey commercial disappearance was the second experienced in a row. Domestic dry whey demand declined 19.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month however dry whey export demand finished 37.7% above previous year levels. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 14 consecutive months through March while the YOY decline in domestic demand was the 11^th experienced throughout the past 12 months.

’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.1% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 6.2%. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey disappearance has declined by 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures for the first time in the past four months throughout Mar ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a 14 month low level.

WPC – Disappearance Reaches a Three Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 20.2% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 20.2% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, finishing higher for the first time in the past five months. Domestic WPC demand increased 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 37.0% higher YOY. The YOY increase in domestic WPC demand was the first experienced throughout the past six months while the YOY increase in WPC export demand was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.

’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.1%, reaching an eight year low level. ’20-’21 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures for the first time in the past three months throughout Mar ’21, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 30.6% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 30.6% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 13.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 38.8% higher.

’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 9.9% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 13.6%, however, reaching an 18 year low level. ’20-’21 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has increased by an additional 10.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures for the first time in the past five months throughout Mar ’21, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.

Mar ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by cheese, while declines were most significant for dry whey. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were widespread and led by NFDM/SMP.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline on a YOY Basis for the Sixth Time in Eight Months, Down 7.5%

U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months during Mar ’21, declining by 7.5% and reaching the second lowest seasonal level on record. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 13.8% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest monthly level on record.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 0.6%, as whole milk sales increased to a 13 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 60% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’20-’21 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Mar ’21, finishing down 10.4% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 0.3% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained 0.1% below three year average annual figures. ’20-’21 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.