The Atten Babler Commodities Ethanol Foreign Exchange (FX) Indices weakened throughout May ’21. The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index declined to a five month low level while the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index reached the lowest level experienced throughout the past three years.

Global Ethanol Producers:

Major ethanol producers are led by the U.S., followed by Brazil, the EU-28, China, India and Canada.

The U.S. accounts for half of the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index while Brazil accounts for over a quarter of the index.

USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index:

The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index declined 2.2 points throughout May ’21, finishing at a five month low value of 133.2. The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index has declined 1.5 points throughout the past six months but remains up 28.5 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index reduces the competitiveness of U.S. ethanol relative to other major producing regions (represented in green in the Global Ethanol Producers chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.

Appreciation against the USD within the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index during May ’21 was led by gains by the Brazilian real, followed by gains by the euro, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan renminbi and Indian rupee.

U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations:

Major destinations for U.S. ethanol exports are led by Canada, followed by the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico.

Canada accounts for over a half of the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index while the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico each account for between 5-10% of the index.

USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index:

The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index declined 2.4 points throughout May ’21, reaching a three year low level of 107.1. The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index has declined 4.9 points throughout the past six months but remains up 19.4 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index results in less purchasing power for the traditional buyers of U.S. ethanol (represented in red in the U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Canadian dollar has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.

Appreciation against the USD within the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index during May ’21 was led by gains by the Canadian dollar, followed by gains by the Brazilian real, Philippine peso and euro. USD gains were exhibited against the Peruvian sol.