Executive Summary

U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butterfat export volumes finished 255.6% higher on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, remaining at a seven year high seasonal level. Butterfat exports exceeded import volumes for the third time in the past four months.
• U.S. cheese export volumes increased 51.2% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching the highest monthly level on record. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 24.1% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching a seven year high seasonal level, however whey protein concentrate export volumes finished 12.8% below previous year levels.
• U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased 15.5% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Exports Remain at a Seven Year High Seasonal Level, Finish 255.6% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, Apr ’21 U.S. export volumes of butterfat increased to a 30 month high level, finishing 255.6% higher on a YOY basis and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butterfat export volumes was the fifth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven and a half years on a percentage basis. Butterfat export volumes exceeded import volumes for the third time in the past four months throughout Apr ’21. Butterfat import volumes had exceeded export volumes over 32 consecutive months through the end of the 2020 calendar year.

’19-’20 annual butterfat export volumes declined 24.1% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD butterfat export volumes have rebounded by 99.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, however.

Canada continued to be the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Apr ’21, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Canada, the EU-27+UK, Bahrain, Australia and Saudi Arabia combined to account for over three quarters of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.

Butterfat export volumes destined to Canada increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by shipments destined to the EU-27+UK and Bahrain, while butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower.

Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada have increased 22.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months however volumes destined to Mexico have declined by 26.3% throughout the period. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries have increased by 137.0% throughout the past 12 months, led by an increase in volumes destined to Saudi Arabia.

Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Monthly Level, Finish 51.2% Higher YOY

U.S. cheese export volumes increased 51.2% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching a new record high monthly level. The YOY increase in cheese export volumes was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven years on a percentage basis. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 20.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 28.9% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a six year high level. ’20-’21 YTD cheese export volumes have increased by an additional 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Apr ’21, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Japan combined to account for over half of all cheese export volumes throughout the month.

YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Mexico and Japan, while cheese export volumes destined to Bahrain finished most significantly lower.

Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 10.0% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.

Whey – Dry Whey Export Volumes Remain Higher YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Lower

U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 15^th consecutive month during Apr ’21, finishing up 24.1% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months through Jan ’20, prior to the 15 most recently experienced YOY increases.

’19-’20 annual dry whey export volumes rebounded 15.6% on a YOY basis from the 15 year low level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey export volumes have increased by an additional 43.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season and are on pace to reach a three year high level.

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 12.8% on a YOY basis during Apr ’21, finishing below previous year levels for just the second time in the past ten months. ’19-’20 annual WPC export volumes increased 18.4% on a YOY basis while ’20-’21 YTD export volumes have increased an additional 15.2% YOY throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent decline

China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Apr ’21, accounting for nearly half of the total export volumes.

YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Canada finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for nearly 40% of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 132.2% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 7.7% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.

NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 15.5% YOY

Apr ’21 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) increased 15.5% on a YOY basis, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month. NFDM/SMP export volumes finished at the second highest monthly total on record, trailing only the previous month’s volumes.

’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes increased 25.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. ’20-’21 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have increased by an additional 8.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Apr ’21, accounting for over one third of the total export volumes. Mexico, Vietnam and the Philippines combined to account for over half of all NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the month.

YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to China and Egypt, while export volumes destined to Indonesia and the Philippines finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 40% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 30.4% YOY over the same period.

Export Volumes Normalized to Production

U.S. butterfat, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished above previous year figures during Apr ’21.

Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 18.6% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Apr ’21 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 3.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Apr ’21 net dairy trade was estimated to have increased 23.1% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 12^th time in the past 13 months.

U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have increased 21.8% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching the third highest monthly level on record. The YOY increase in dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the third experienced in a row. ’19-’20 annual exports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 11.8% above previous year levels but remained below the ’17-’18 record high figures. ’20-’21 YTD exports as a percentage of milk-solids production have increased by an additional 9.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

Apr ’21 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have increased 16.2% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the first time in the past five months. ’19-’20 annual imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 0.6% above previous year levels however ’20-’21 YTD imports as a percentage of milk-solids production have declined by 7.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for just the second time in the past nine months throughout Apr ’21 while the U.S. finished as a net exporter of butter for the third time in the past four months.