Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached record high seasonal levels on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Apr ’21. Domestic demand increased 10.1% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 5.3% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance each reached record high seasonal levels throughout Apr ’21 while dry whey and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance also finished above previous year levels. U.S. butter commercial disappearance finished below previous year levels for the first time in the past six months throughout Apr ’21 but remained at the third highest seasonal level on record.
• U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months throughout Mar ’21, declining by 7.5% and reaching the second lowest seasonal level on record.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Reaches Record High Seasonal Levels on a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased YOY for the fourth consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, finishing up 12.3% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 10.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 62.5% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 1.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis has increased by an additional 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 12 months throughout Apr ’21, finishing up 8.7% and reaching a record high monthly level. Domestic demand increased 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 21.7% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.4%. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has increased by an additional 2.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in Six Months, Finishes Down 2.2%

U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Apr ’21 butter commercial disappearance remained at the third highest seasonal level on record. Domestic butter demand declined 7.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 343.9% YOY increase in export demand.

’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.6%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD butter disappearance has increased by an additional 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. butter production and import figures slightly outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Apr ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a 27 year high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first seven months of the calendar year.

Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 21.9% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 21.9% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced in a row. American cheese disappearance increased 23.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, reaching the highest monthly level on record, while other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 20.9% YOY, reaching a record seasonal high. Domestic cheese demand increased 20.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 51.2% above previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% above the previous year, reaching a record high level for the 25^th consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures for the first time in the past seven months throughout Apr ’21, resulting in stocks declining contraseasonally from the previous month.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, up 5.9% YOY

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 5.9% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, remaining above previous year levels for the third consecutive month. Domestic dry whey demand declined 12.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month however dry whey export demand finished 24.1% above previous year levels. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 15 consecutive months through April while the YOY decline in domestic demand was the 12^th experienced throughout the past 13 months.

’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.1% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 6.2%. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey disappearance has declined by 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures for the second consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a four and a half year low level.

WPC – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, up 2.6% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand increased 28.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.8% YOY decline in export demand.

’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.1%, reaching an eight year low level. ’20-’21 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures for the second consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a 22 month low level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 18.8% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 18.8% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 26.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 15.5% higher.

’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 9.9% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 13.6%, however, reaching an 18 year low level. ’20-’21 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has increased by an additional 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures for the second consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a four month low level.

Apr ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by cheese, while declines were most significant for butter. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were widespread with the exception of WPC and led by cheese, followed by NFDM/SMP.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline on a YOY Basis for the Sixth Time in Eight Months, Down 7.5%

U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past eight months during Mar ’21, declining by 7.5% and reaching the second lowest seasonal level on record. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 13.8% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest monthly level on record.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 0.6%, as whole milk sales increased to a 13 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 60% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’20-’21 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Mar ’21, finishing down 10.4% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 0.3% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained 0.1% below three year average annual figures. ’20-’21 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.