Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 22^nd time in the past 23 months throughout May ’21, finishing 4.6% above the previous year and remaining at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past nine years. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Wisconsin and Texas.
• The Apr ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 10,000 head above levels previously stated while the May ’21 figure increased an additional 5,000 head, reaching a 26 year high level. Milk cow herd figures finished 145,000 head above the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields increased 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing higher for the 66^th time in the past 67 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, May ’21 U.S. milk production volumes declined seasonally from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 4.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. Milk production volumes have remained at record high seasonal levels over 12 consecutive months throughout May ’21. The month-over-month decline in production volumes of 0.7% was greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal decline in production of 0.1%.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes have rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 22 of the past 23 months through May ’21. The May ’21 YOY increase in production was the largest experienced throughout the past nine years, while the 12-month rolling average growth rate reached a five and a half year high level. U.S. milk production volumes declined 0.5% on a YOY basis during May of 2020 as initial disruptions caused by COVID-19 developed.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+14.6%), followed by Indiana (+12.6%) and Texas (+10.8%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-2.3%), Washington (-0.9%) and Arizona (-0.5%). Wisconsin milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 11 months, finishing 5.6% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. The YOY increase in Wisconsin milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past six years. Overall, 20 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 19^th time in the past 20 months throughout May ’21, finishing up 5.0%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past nine years. California accounted for 18.8% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout May ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 5.0% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during May ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

May ’21 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by California, followed by Wisconsin and Texas, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Washington.

The Apr ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 10,000 head above levels previous stated while the May ’21 figure increased an additional 5,000 head, reaching a 26 year high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.505 million head, finishing 145,000 head above the previous year.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 3.0% above previous year levels throughout May ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 66^th time in the past 67 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.9% higher on a YOY basis throughout May ’21 while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 1.5% YOY.

Month-over-month increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas and New York, followed by Michigan, Colorado, Indiana and South Dakota, while the New Mexico milk cow herd declined most significantly from the previous month throughout May ’21.

May ’21 YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Indiana, Minnesota and South Dakota, while the Pennsylvania and Vermont milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.