Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 23^rd consecutive month throughout May ’21, finishing up 6.9% and reaching a 27 year high level.
• U.S. cheese stocks reached a record high seasonal level throughout May ’21, finishing 0.7% above previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Reach a 27 Year High Level, Finish 6.9% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, May ’21 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a 27 year high level, finishing 6.9% above previous year levels. Butter stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 23 consecutive months through May ’21, although the May ’21 YOY increase in butter stocks was the second smallest experienced throughout the past 17 months on a percentage basis, finishing only above the previous month’s growth rate.

The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of 15.6 million pounds, or 4.1%, was smaller than the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 21.1 million pounds, or 8.9%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.

On a days of usage basis, May ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished above previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the tenth time in the past 11 months, finishing up 2.9%.

Cheese – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 0.7% Higher YOY

May ’21 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to the third highest monthly level on record, finishing 0.7% above previous year levels and reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months. American cheese stocks increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished less than 0.1% above previous year levels.

The month-over-month increase in cheese stocks of 16.6 million pounds, or 1.1%, was consistent with the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 13.8 million pounds, or 1.2%.

On a days of usage basis, May ’21 U.S. cheese stocks remained below previous year levels, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing down 2.2%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – May ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain Below Previous Year Levels

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 5.2% below previous year levels throughout Apr ’21, declining on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 15 months. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain lower on a YOY basis throughout May ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, declining by an estimated 2.7%. Combined dairy product stocks are projected to remain at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of May, however. May ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Jul 2^nd.