Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• May ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined 8.3% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a five year low seasonal level.
• May ’21 YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), while dairy cow slaughter rates finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).
• Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd reaching a 26 year high level through May ’21. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 4.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the ’20-’21 production season.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, May ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined seasonally to an 11 month low level while finishing 8.3% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Dairy cow slaughter rates reached a five year low seasonal level for the month of May. The month-over-month decline in slaughter rates of 11.4% was the largest seasonal decline experienced throughout the past 14 years, finishing greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal decline of 5.2%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 16 of 18 months through Jan ’21. More recently, dairy cow slaughter rates have finished slightly higher on a YOY basis throughout two consecutive months through Mar ’21, prior to declining again throughout the months of April and May. U.S. dairy cow slaughter has declined 4.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the ’20-’21 production season.

Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd continuing to grow through May ’21. The May ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure increased 5,000 head from the previous month, reaching a 26 year high level and finishing 145,000 head above the previous year.

Month-over-month declines in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).

YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia). Dairy cow slaughter rates increased most on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.