The Atten Babler Commodities Ethanol Foreign Exchange (FX) Indices were mixed throughout Jun ’21. The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index declined to a 16 month low level however the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index strengthened throughout the month.

Global Ethanol Producers:

Major ethanol producers are led by the U.S., followed by Brazil, the EU-28, China, India and Canada.

The U.S. accounts for half of the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index while Brazil accounts for over a quarter of the index.

USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index:

The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index declined 1.8 points throughout Jun ’21, finishing at a 16 month low value of 131.4. The USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index has declined 0.9 points throughout the past six months but remains up 26.8 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index reduces the competitiveness of U.S. ethanol relative to other major producing regions (represented in green in the Global Ethanol Producers chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Brazilian real has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.

Appreciation against the USD within the USD/Ethanol Producer FX Index during Jun ’21 was led by gains by the Brazilian real, followed by gains by the Chinese yuan renminbi. USD gains were exhibited against the euro, Canadian dollar and Indian rupee.

U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations:

Major destinations for U.S. ethanol exports are led by Canada, followed by the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico.

Canada accounts for over a half of the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index while the Philippines, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico each account for between 5-10% of the index.

USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index:

The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index increased 0.3 points throughout Jun ’21, finishing at a level of 107.4. The USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index has declined 2.4 points throughout the past six months but remains up 19.7 points since the beginning of 2014. A strong USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index results in less purchasing power for the traditional buyers of U.S. ethanol (represented in red in the U.S. Ethanol Export Destinations chart), ultimately resulting in less foreign demand, all other factors being equal. USD appreciation against the Canadian dollar has accounted for the majority of the gains since the beginning of 2014.

USD appreciation within the USD/Domestic Ethanol Importer FX Index during Jun ’21 was led by gains against the Canadian dollar, followed by gains against the Peruvian sol, Philippine peso and euro. USD declines were exhibited against the Brazilian real.