Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products remained at a record high seasonal level on a milk-fat basis throughout May ’21 but finished below previous year levels for the first time in the past five months on a skim-solids basis. Domestic demand increased 1.3% YOY on a milk-fat basis but finished 3.5% lower on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. cheese commercial disappearance remained at a record high seasonal level throughout May ’21 while whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance also finished above previous year levels. U.S. butter commercial disappearance finished below previous year levels for the second consecutive month throughout May ’21, however, while dry whey and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance also finished lower YOY. Dry whey commercial disappearance reached a record low seasonal level throughout May ’21.
• U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past ten months throughout May ’21, declining by 4.3% and reaching a record low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Higher YOY on a Milk-Fat Basis, Lower YOY on a Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased YOY for the fifth consecutive month throughout May ’21, finishing up 1.9% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 12.9% higher YOY.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 1.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis has increased by an additional 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months throughout May ’21, finishing 0.3% below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout the previous year. Domestic demand declined 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.8% YOY increase in export demand. Commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of May, however, finishing 1.2% above three year average seasonal levels.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.4%. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has increased by an additional 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Butter – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Down 1.0%

U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the second consecutive month. Despite declining on a YOY basis, May ’21 butter commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic butter demand declined 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 195.1% YOY increase in export demand.

’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.6%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD butter disappearance has increased by an additional 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout May ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a 27 year high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the calendar year.

Cheese – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 1.7% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined from the previous month but remained 1.7% above previous year levels throughout May ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the fifth experienced in a row. American cheese disappearance increased 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 0.6% YOY. Domestic cheese demand increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.7% YOY decline in export demand.

’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% above the previous year, reaching a record high level for the 25^th consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.

U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout May ’21, resulting in stocks reaching the third highest monthly level on record.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Reaches a Record Low Seasonal Level, Down 4.6% YOY

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past four months and reaching the lowest seasonal level on record. Domestic dry whey demand declined 37.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 30.3% YOY increase in export demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over 16 consecutive months through May while the YOY decline in domestic demand was the 13^th experienced throughout the past 14 months.

’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.1% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 6.3%. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey disappearance has declined by 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.

U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout May ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three month high level.

WPC – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, up 8.3% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 8.3% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing higher for the third consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand increased 71.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 17.9% YOY decline in export demand.

’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.4%, reaching an eight year low level. ’20-’21 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout May ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three month high level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Finishes Lower YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Down 21.4%

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 21.4% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past three months. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the largest experienced throughout the past two and a half years on a percentage basis. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 83.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 11.5% YOY increase in export demand.

’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 9.9% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 13.1%, however, reaching an 18 year low level. ’20-’21 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has increased by an additional 5.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout May ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a 13 month high level.

May ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by cheese, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were led by NFDM/SMP, while declines were most significant for cheese.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Down 4.3% YOY

U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past ten months during May ’21, declining by 4.3% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 16.5% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest monthly level on record.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales finished 0.5% above the record low level experienced throughout the previous production season, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 years. Annual fluid milk sales remained 0.3% below previous year levels throughout the 2020 calendar year, however. ’20-’21 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season and are on pace to reach a record low annual level.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months during May ’21, finishing down 5.8% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 1.4% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high level. ’20-’21 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by 4.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach the lowest annual level on record.