Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jun ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 2.6% below previous year levels, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months.
• U.S. pork production declined 6.1% on a YOY basis, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past three months. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 4.8% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21 while average weights per head finished 1.4% lower YOY.
• Jun ’21 U.S. beef production reached a 15 year high seasonal level, finishing 1.0% above previous year figures. The total number of cattle slaughtered increased 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY decline in average weights per head.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Finishes Lower YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Down 2.6%

According to the USDA, Jun ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production rebounded from the 12 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 2.6% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the first experienced throughout the past three months.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD red meat production has increased by an additional 2.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 46^th consecutive month throughout Jun ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the third largest experienced on record.

Pork – Production Finishes Lower YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Down 6.1%

Jun ’21 U.S. pork production rebounded from the 12 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 6.1% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The YOY decline in pork production was the first experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past 13 months on a percentage basis. The Jun ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 4.8% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 1.4% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD pork production has increased by an additional 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Beef – Production Reaches a 15 Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes 1.0% Higher YOY

Jun ’21 U.S. beef production rebounded from the 12 month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 1.0% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Beef production reached a 15 year high seasonal level for the month of June. The Jun ’21 total number of cattle slaughtered increased 2.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.4% decline in average weights per head.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD beef production has rebounded by 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.