Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 15^th consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, finishing 3.9% below previous year volumes and reaching an 11 year low seasonal level.
• U.S. beef stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, finishing 7.1% below previous year levels and reaching a six and a half year low level, overall.
• U.S. chicken stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, finishing 14.8% below previous year volumes and reaching a six year low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Remain at an 11 Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 3.9% Lower on a YOY Basis

According to the USDA, Jun ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to a six month low level while finishing 3.9% below previous year volumes, reaching an 11 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 15^th experienced in a row. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the 15 most recent YOY declines. The month-over-month decline in pork stocks of 20.3 million pound, or 4.4%, was smaller than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 38.7 million pounds, or 6.3%.

Beef – Stocks Decline to a Six and a Half Year Low Level, Finish Down 7.1% YOY

Jun ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined seasonally to a six and a half year low level, finishing 7.1% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the fourth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 20 months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month decline in beef stocks of 18.0 million pounds, or 4.3%, was larger than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 6.2 million pounds, or 1.4%.

Chicken – Stocks Finish at a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 14.8% YOY

Jun ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks continued to rebound slightly from recently experienced six year low levels but remained 14.8% below previous year levels. Chicken stocks finished at a six year low seasonal level for the month of June, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past 11 months. The month-over-month increase in chicken stocks of 8.0 million pounds was greater than the ten year average May – June seasonal increase in stocks of 0.5 million pounds.

Overall, Jun ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 24% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Jun ’21 chicken stocks finished 25% below the record high historical storage level, while beef and pork stocks finished 30% and 37% below their respective maximum historical storage levels.

Jun ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level, finishing 17% below the record high seasonal level experienced during June of 2018. Individually, Jun ’21 chicken and beef stocks each finished 17% below their record high seasonal storage levels, while pork stocks finished 30% below the record high seasonal storage level.

The Jun ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 14^th experienced in a row. Combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a six and a half year low level, overall.