Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached record high seasonal levels on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Jun ’21 as each finished slightly above previous year levels. Domestic demand increased 0.1% YOY on a milk-fat basis but finished 1.6% lower on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. butter commercial disappearance remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, while cheese and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance each finished slightly below previous year levels. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance remained significantly below previous year levels throughout Jun ’21 however dry whey commercial disappearance rebounded to a three year high seasonal level.
• U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months throughout Jun ’21, declining by 6.6% and reaching the lowest monthly level on record.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Finishes Slightly Higher YOY on Both a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased YOY for the sixth consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, finishing up 0.1% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.5% YOY decline in export demand.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 1.0% YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 1.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis has increased by an additional 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased by less than 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 5.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.6% YOY decline in domestic demand.

’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining by 1.4%. ’20-’21 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has increased by an additional 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.

Butter – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 3.5%

U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Jun ’21 butter commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic butter demand declined 5.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 67.3% YOY increase in export demand.

’19-’20 annual butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.6%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’20-’21 YTD butter disappearance has increased by an additional 1.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Jun ’21, resulting in stocks increasing contraseasonally to a 27 year high level. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

Cheese – Disappearance Remains Near Record High Seasonal Levels, Down Less Than 0.1% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance finished less than 0.1% below the previous year’s record high seasonal level throughout Jun ’21, remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY decline in cheese commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past six months. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.5% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Cheese export demand declined 13.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.0% YOY increase in domestic cheese demand.

’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance finished 0.1% above the previous year, reaching a record high level for the 25^th consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 2.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.

U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Jun ’21, resulting in stocks declining slightly from the previous month.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Rebounds to a Three Year High Seasonal Level, up 2.0% YOY

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the fourth time in the past five months and reaching a three year high seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand increased 6.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.3% YOY decline in export demand. The YOY increase in domestic dry whey demand was just the second experienced throughout the past 15 months while dry whey exports finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 17 months.

’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance increased 2.1% on a YOY basis from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand declining by 6.3%. ’20-’21 YTD dry whey disappearance has declined by 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.

U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Jun ’21, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.

WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the First Time in Four Months, Down 0.1% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing lower for the first time in the past four months and reaching a six year low seasonal level. Domestic WPC demand declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY increase in export demand.

’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a seven year low level. Domestic demand declined 24.4%, reaching an eight year low level. ’20-’21 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.

U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Jun ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a four month high level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Down 20.7%

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 20.7% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the second consecutive month. Despite declining on a YOY basis, NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past nine years. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 64.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.4% YOY increase in export demand.

’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 9.9% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Domestic demand declined 13.1%, however, reaching an 18 year low level. ’20-’21 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has increased by an additional 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Jun ’21, resulting in stocks reaching a 14 month high level.

Jun ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by cheese, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were led by NFDM/SMP, while declines were most significant for cheese.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach the Lowest Monthly Level on Record, Down 6.6% YOY

U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Jun ’21, declining by 6.6% and reaching the lowest monthly level on record. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 12.5% on a YOY basis.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales finished 0.6% above the record low level experienced throughout the previous production season, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 years. Annual fluid milk sales remained 0.2% below previous year levels throughout the 2020 calendar year, however. ’20-’21 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season and are on pace to reach a record low annual level.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 11 months during Jun ’21, finishing down 7.0% and reaching the lowest monthly figure on record. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 1.4% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high level. ’20-’21 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by 4.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach the lowest annual level on record.