Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 16^th consecutive month throughout Jul ’21, finishing 3.8% below previous year volumes and remaining at an 11 year low seasonal level.
• U.S. beef stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month throughout Jul ’21, finishing 8.8% below previous year levels and reaching a six and a half year low level, overall.
• U.S. chicken stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 12^th consecutive month throughout Jul ’21, finishing 16.3% below previous year volumes and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Remain at an 11 Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 3.8% Lower on a YOY Basis

According to the USDA, Jul ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks rebounded from the six month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 3.8% below previous year volumes, remaining at an 11 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 16^th experienced in a row. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the 16 most recent YOY declines. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 1.2 million pound, or 0.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal decline in stocks of 12.0 million pounds, or 2.2%.

Beef – Stocks Decline to a Six and a Half Year Low Level, Finish Down 8.8% YOY

Jul ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined seasonally to a six and a half year low level, finishing 8.8% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the fifth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 21 months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month decline in beef stocks of 0.3 million pounds, or 0.1%, was a slight contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 6.9 million pounds, or 1.8%.

Chicken – Stocks Reach a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 16.3% YOY

Jul ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined slightly from the previous month while finishing 16.3% below previous year levels. Chicken stocks finished at a seven year low seasonal level for the month of July, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the 12^th consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past 12 months. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 4.2 million pounds, or 0.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 12.0 million pounds, or 1.8%.

Overall, Jul ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 24% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Jul ’21 chicken stocks finished 25% below the record high historical storage level, while beef and pork stocks finished 29% and 37% below their respective maximum historical storage levels.

Jul ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level, finishing 18% below the record high seasonal level experienced during July of 2019. Individually, Jul ’21 chicken and beef stocks each finished 17% below their record high seasonal storage levels, while pork stocks finished 30% below the record high seasonal storage level.

The Jul ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 15^th experienced in a row. Combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks reached a six and a half year low level, overall.