Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 25^th time in the past 26 months throughout Aug ’21, finishing 1.1% above the previous year and remaining at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past 14 months, however. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by South Dakota and Michigan. New Mexico and Washington milk production volumes finished most significantly below previous year levels.
• The Jul ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 1,000 head below levels previously stated while the Aug ’21 figure declined an additional 19,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a five month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.48 million head, down 29,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 but remaining 106,000 head above the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields declined 0.1% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, finishing below previous year levels for just the second time in the past five and a half years.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Aug ’21 U.S. milk production volumes declined seasonally to a nine month low level but remained 1.1% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. Milk production volumes have reached record high seasonal levels over 15 consecutive months through Aug ’21. The month-over-month decline in production volumes of 1.5% was the largest experienced throughout the past six years.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes have rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 25 of the past 26 months through Aug ’21. The Aug ’21 YOY increase in production was the smallest experienced throughout the past 14 months, however.

YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+16.2%), followed by Georgia (+4.4%) and Indiana (+4.3%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within New Mexico (-9.3%), Washington (-6.6%) and Florida (-4.0%). Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes finished above previous year levels for the 21^st time in the past 23 months throughout Aug ’21, increasing by 0.7%. California accounted for 18.0% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Seven of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Aug ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 0.8% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Aug ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Aug ’21 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by South Dakota and Michigan, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout New Mexico, followed by Washington.

The Jul ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 1,000 head below levels previous stated while the Aug ’21 figure declined an additional 19,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a five month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.48 million head, down 29,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 but remaining 106,000 head above the previous year. The Aug ’21 month-over-month decline in the U.S. milk cow herd was the largest experienced throughout the past 29 months.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.1% below previous year levels throughout Aug ’21, finishing lower on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past five and a half years. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21 while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon finished 0.7% below previous year levels.

Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds were led by New Mexico, followed by New York, Washington and Iowa, while the California, Minnesota, Kansas, Florida and Illinois milk cow herds also declined throughout the month. The South Dakota milk cow herd increased from the previous month throughout Aug ’21.

Aug ’21 YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by South Dakota and Wisconsin, while the New Mexico and Washington milk cow herds finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.