Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 12 months throughout Aug ’21, finishing 22.6% below previous year figures and reaching a five year low seasonal level.
• Aug ’21 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level but remained 2.8% above previous year levels, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Reach a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 22.6% YOY

According to the USDA, Aug ’21 month-end dry whey stocks increased contraseasonally to a six month high level but remained 22.6% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the 11^th experienced throughout the past 12 months.

The month-over-month increase in dry whey stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 1.7%, was a slight contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 2.9 million pounds, or 5.1%. Dry whey production declined 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, finishing below previous year figures for the 13^th time in the past 15 months.

On a days of usage basis, Aug ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 21.0% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 12 months.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Reach the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record, up 2.8% YOY

Aug ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level but remained 2.8% above previous year levels, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.

The month-over-month decline in NFDM stocks of 28.2 million pounds, or 9.0%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 21.4 million pounds, or 9.1%. NFDM production declined 17.0% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level.

On a days of usage basis, Aug ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.2% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 1.8% YOY

Aug ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 1.8% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of August. Combined dairy product stocks have reached record high seasonal levels over 18 of the past 19 months through Aug ’21.