Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 12^th time in the past 13 months throughout Sep ’21, finishing 19.7% below previous year figures and reaching a five year low seasonal level.
• Sep ’21 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained 2.2% above previous year levels. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Sep ’21 nonfat dry milk stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Remain at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 19.7% YOY

According to the USDA, Sep ’21 month-end dry whey stocks declined seasonally to a three month low level while finishing 19.7% below previous year levels, remaining at a five year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the 12^th experienced throughout the past 13 months.

The month-over-month decline in dry whey stocks of 4.0 million pounds, or 5.8%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 2.2%. Dry whey production declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year figures for the 14^th time in the past 16 months.

On a days of usage basis, Sep ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 17.8% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the 12^th time in the past 13 months and reaching a five year low seasonal level.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline Seasonally to an 11 Month Low Level but Remain 2.2% Higher YOY

Sep ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained 2.2% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Sep ’21 NFDM stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years.

The month-over-month decline in NFDM stocks of 40.6 million pounds, or 14.3%, was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal decline in stocks of 22.8 million pounds, or 9.3%. The seasonal decline in NFDM stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past seven years on both an absolute and percentage basis. NFDM production declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21.

On a days of usage basis, Sep ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of September, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 0.6% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 4.0% YOY

Sep ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 4.0% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of September. Combined dairy product stocks have reached record high seasonal levels over 19 of the past 20 months through Sep ’21.