Executive Summary

U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. milk production volumes declined to a 22 month low level throughout Oct ’21, finishing 0.5% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in milk production volumes was just the second experienced throughout the past 28 months and the largest experienced throughout the past 31 months on a percentage basis. YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by California and Washington. Wisconsin, Texas and South Dakota milk production volumes finished most significantly above previous year levels throughout the month.
• The Sep ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 8,000 head below levels previously stated while the Oct ’21 figure declined an additional 14,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a 13 month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.400 million head, down 107,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 and finishing 14,000 head below the previous year.
• U.S. milk per cow yields declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. U.S. milk per cow yields had finished below previous year levels just once over the past five and a half years prior to the three most recent declines.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Oct ’21 U.S. milk production volumes declined to a 22 month low level, finishing 0.5% below previous year figures. Milk production volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over 16 consecutive months through the month of September, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21. The month-over-month decline in production volumes of 0.7% was the largest seasonal September – October decline experienced throughout the past 11 years on a percentage basis.

U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes had rebounded throughout more recent months, finishing higher over 26 of the past 27 months through Sep ’21. The Oct ’21 YOY decline in production was the largest experienced throughout the past 31 months.

’20-’21 annual U.S. milk production volumes finished 2.4% above previous year levels, reaching a 13 year high annual growth rate. The USDA is projecting U.S. milk production volumes will increase 0.8% throughout the 2022 calendar year.

YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by New Mexico (-12.2%), followed by Washington (-6.9%) and Virginia (-4.9%), while production volumes finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis within South Dakota (+15.3%), Texas (+3.9%) and Minnesota (+2.8%). Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY declines in production throughout the month.

California milk production volumes declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, finishing below previous year levels for just the second time in the past ten months. The YOY decline in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past three years on a percentage basis. California accounted for 18.0% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.

Five of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY declines in production throughout Oct ’21, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states declined by a weighted average of 0.2% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Oct ’21. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Oct ’21 YOY declines in milk production on an absolute basis were led by New Mexico, followed by California and Washington, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Wisconsin, followed by Texas and South Dakota.

The Sep ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 8,000 head below levels previous stated while the Oct ’21 figure declined an additional 14,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure, reaching a 13 month low level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.400 million head, down 107,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21 and finishing 14,000 head below the previous year.

Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds were led by Michigan, followed by Ohio, Indiana, New Mexico, Arizona, Kansas and Virginia.

Oct ’21 YOY declines in milk cow herds continued to be led by New Mexico, followed by Washington, while the Texas, Wisconsin and South Dakota milk cow herds finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.

U.S. milk per cow yields finished 0.3% below previous year levels throughout Oct ’21, finishing slightly lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month. U.S. milk per cow yields had finished below previous year levels just once over the past five and a half years prior to the three most recent declines. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois increased 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21 however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon finished 0.7% below previous year levels.