Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Oct ’21 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level while finishing 6.1% below previous year levels. Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 28 years.
• Oct ’21 U.S. cheese stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month, finishing 8.2% above previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Remain Below Previous Year Levels for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 6.1%

According to the USDA, Oct ’21 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level while finishing 6.1% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in butter stocks was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 29 months on a percentage basis. Butter stocks had finished above previous year levels over 25 consecutive months through Jul ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the three most recently available data points.

Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 28 years. The month-over-month decline in butter stocks of 48.6 million pounds, or 14.7%, was largely consistent with the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 36.6 million pounds, or 14.9%. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

On a days of usage basis, Oct ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of Oct, butter stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 9.7%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 8.2% Higher YOY

Oct ’21 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally from the four month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 8.2% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the 11^th experienced throughout the past 12 months and the largest experienced throughout the past three years on a percentage basis.

American cheese stocks finished 11.8% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 3.5% above previous year levels. The month-over-month decline in cheese stocks of 6.6 million pounds, or 0.5%, was smaller than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 25.1 million pounds, or 2.2%.

On a days of usage basis, Oct ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished above previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 5.1%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Oct ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 3.9% above previous year levels throughout Sep ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the 19^th time in the past 20 months. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Oct ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 4.3% on a YOY basis. Oct ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Dec 3^rd.