Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Oct ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased 3.2% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining above previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month.
• Oct ’21 YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia).
• Recent upticks in slaughter rates have contributed to the Oct ’21 U.S. milk cow herd finishing 107,000 head below recently experienced 26 year high levels, declining to a 13 month low level, overall.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Oct ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined seasonally from the six month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 3.2% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Dairy cow slaughter rates remained below 2018 and 2019 seasonal levels, however. The month-over-month decline in slaughter rates of 1.1% was smaller than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 3.0%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 18 of 22 months through May ’21. More recently, dairy cow slaughter rates have finished higher on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through Oct ’21.

’20-’21 annual U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates finished 1.0% below previous year levels, reaching a four year low annual level, despite the recently experienced increases.

Month-over-month declines in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) and Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), while increases were largest throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).

YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia), while declines were largest throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).

The U.S. milk cow herd expanded significantly throughout the first half of 2021, aided by reduced slaughter rates. More recently, the U.S. milk cow herd has declined 107,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the month of May, reaching a 13 month low level during Oct ’21.

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.