Executive Summary

U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butterfat export volumes finished 108.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The U.S. remained a slight net importer of butterfat throughout the month, however.
• U.S. cheese export volumes finished 43.7% higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. Dry whey and whey protein concentrate export volumes each remained lower on a YOY basis throughout the month, however.
• U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes finished 12.3% lower on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a three year low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Exports Reach a Three Year High Seasonal Level, up 108.1% YOY

According to the USDA, Oct ’21 U.S. export volumes of butterfat finished 108.1% above previous year levels, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butterfat export volumes was the 11^th experienced in a row. The U.S. remained a slight net importer of butterfat throughout the month, however.

’20-’21 annual butterfat export volumes finished 113.1% above the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a seven year high annual level.

Canada continued to be the top destination for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Oct ’21, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. Canada and Bahrain combined to account for over half of all butterfat export volumes throughout the month.

Butterfat export volumes destined to Canada increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by shipments destined to Saudi Arabia, while butterfat export volumes destined to the Bahamas finished most significantly lower.

Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada have increased 78.6% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months however volumes destined to Mexico have declined by 4.5% throughout the period. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries have increased by 188.6% throughout the past 12 months, led by increases in volumes destined to Bahrain.

Cheese – Exports Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 43.7% YOY

Oct ’21 U.S. cheese export volumes finished 43.7% above previous year levels, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 57.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 31.4% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual cheese export volumes finished 4.6% above the previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the first time in the past seven years.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Oct ’21, accounting for over a fifth of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Japan combined to account for half of all cheese export volumes throughout the month.

YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to South Korea and Australia, while cheese export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly lower.

Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.

Whey – Dry Whey & Whey Protein Concentrate Export Volumes Remain Lower YOY

U.S. dry whey export volumes remained below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month throughout Oct ’21, finishing down 21.5%. Dry whey export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 16 consecutive months through May ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the five most recent months of available data. The YOY decline in dry whey export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 23 months.

’20-’21 annual dry whey export volumes finished 21.8% above previous year levels, reaching a three year high annual level, despite the recently experienced declines.

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 20.3% on a YOY basis during Oct ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the second consecutive month. WPC export volumes reached a three year low seasonal level throughout Oct ’21.

’20-’21 annual WPC export volumes finished 6.2% above previous year levels, reaching a three year high annual level, despite the most recent decline.

China continued to be the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Oct ’21, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. China, Canada and Mexico combined to account for over half of all whey export volumes throughout the month.

YOY declines in whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, followed by volumes destined to Japan and the Philippines, while volumes destined to Canada finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.

China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for nearly 40% of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 48.7% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 2.0% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period.

NFDM/SMP – Exports Decline to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 12.3% YOY

Oct ’21 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished 12.3% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP export volumes was just the second experienced throughout the past nine months and the largest experienced throughout the past ten months on a percentage basis.

’20-’21 annual NFDM/SMP export volumes finished 8.9% above previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year.

Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Oct ’21, accounting for over 40% of the total export volumes. Mexico and the Philippines combined to account for nearly two thirds of all NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the month.

YOY declines in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Indonesia, followed by volumes destined to Mexico and Algeria, while export volumes destined to the Philippines finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 40% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have increased 19.2% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 0.4% YOY over the same period.

Export Volumes Normalized to Production

U.S. butterfat and cheese export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Oct ’21 while dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes finished lower.

Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 17.9% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Oct ’21 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to 3.0% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Oct ’21 net dairy trade was estimated to have increased 10.3% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the 18^th time in the past 19 months.

U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have increased 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month. The YOY increase in dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the ninth experienced in a row.

’20-’21 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 8.5% above previous year levels, reaching a record high annual level for the first time in the past three years.

Oct ’21 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have declined 18.7% on a YOY basis, finishing below previous year levels for the fifth time in the past six months. Oct ’21 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production are estimated to have reached a nine year low seasonal level.

’20-’21 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production finished 9.5% below previous year levels, reaching a ten year low annual level.

Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net dry whey trade volumes exceeded net cheese trade volumes for the second consecutive month throughout Oct ’21 while the U.S. finished as a slight net importer of butter.