Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Nov ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates finished 2.0% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a seven year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter rates was the first experienced throughout the past six months.
• Nov ’21 YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), followed by Standard Federal Region 8 (Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming).
• Recent upticks in slaughter rates have contributed to the Nov ’21 U.S. milk cow herd finishing 122,000 head below recently experienced 26 year high levels, declining to a 15 month low level, overall.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Nov ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined to a five month low level while finishing 2.0% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a seven year low seasonal level. The month-over-month decline in slaughter rates of 6.2% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average October – November seasonal increase of 1.1%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 18 of 22 months through May ’21. More recently, dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through Oct ’21, prior to finishing below previous year levels throughout the month of November.

’20-’21 annual U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates finished 1.0% below previous year levels, reaching a four year low annual level, despite the increases experienced throughout the final third of the production season.

Month-over-month declines in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), followed by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada).

YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), followed by Standard Federal Region 8 (Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming), while increases were largest throughout Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas).

The U.S. milk cow herd expanded significantly throughout the first half of 2021, aided by reduced slaughter rates. More recently, the U.S. milk cow herd has declined 122,000 head from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the month of May, reaching a 15 month low level during Nov ’21.

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.