Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached record high seasonal levels on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Nov ’21. Domestic demand increased 2.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 1.0% on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance each reached record high seasonal levels throughout Nov ’21, while butter disappearance reached a three year high seasonal level. Dry whey commercial disappearance remained above previous year levels for the second consecutive month, while whey protein concentration disappearance remained at a six year high seasonal level.
• U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year levels for the 13^th time in the past 15 months throughout Oct ’21, declining by 5.2% and reaching a three year low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Reaches Record Seasonal Highs on Both a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis reached a record high monthly level throughout Nov ’21, finishing 3.5% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis was the tenth experienced throughout the past 11 months. Domestic disappearance increased 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 40.4% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 2.4% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 12^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.7%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased by 4.1% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months. Domestic disappearance increased 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 16.6% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance finished 0.3% below previous year levels, however, reaching a three year low level.

Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Three Year High Seasonal Level, up 3.4% YOY

U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 3.4% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching a three year high seasonal level and the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of November. The YOY increase in butter disappearance was the fifth experienced in a row. Domestic butter disappearance increased 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 142.8% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual butter disappearance finished 4.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the fourth consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.9%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Nov ’21, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a 23 month low level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the following calendar year.

Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Monthly Level, up 5.2% YOY

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 5.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching a record high monthly level. The YOY increase in cheese disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months on a percentage basis.

American cheese disappearance increased 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 8.0% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in American cheese disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic cheese disappearance increased 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 39.9% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual cheese disappearance finished 2.4% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 26^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Nov ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a ten month low level.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, up 1.2%

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining slightly above previous year levels for the second consecutive month. Dry whey disappearance had finished below previous year levels over five consecutive months through Sep ’21, prior to finishing higher throughout the two most recent months of available data. Dry whey export demand increased 7.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.0% YOY decline in domestic demand. The YOY decline in domestic dry whey demand was the 17^th experienced throughout the past 20 months.

’20-’21 annual dry whey disappearance finished 3.9% below previous year levels, reaching a six year low annual level. Domestic disappearance declined 23.5%, reaching a seven year low level.

U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Nov ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding from the five year low level experienced throughout the previous month.

WPC – Disappearance Remains at a Six Year High Seasonal Level, up 11.4% YOY

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 11.4% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a six year high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. The YOY increase in WPC commercial disappearance was the seventh experienced throughout the past nine months. Domestic WPC disappearance increased 60.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 14.4% YOY decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual WPC disappearance finished 0.7% below previous year levels, reaching an eight year low level. Domestic disappearance finished 10.1% below previous year levels, reaching a nine year low annual level.

U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Nov ’21, resulting in stocks rebounding to a three and a half year high level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 1.9% YOY

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the second consecutive month. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 24.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 40.8% YOY decline in domestic demand.

’20-’21 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance finished 0.7% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance declined 17.2%, however, reaching a 27 year low annual level.

U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Nov ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a six year low level.

Nov ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by cheese, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were led by NFDM/SMP, followed by cheese, while declines were most significant for WPC.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 5.2% YOY

U.S. fluid milk sales remained below previous year figures for the 13^th time in the past 15 months throughout Oct ’21, declining by 5.2% and reaching a three year low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 11.6% on a YOY basis and reaching a record low seasonal level throughout the month.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales finished 0.6% above the record low level experienced throughout the previous production season, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 years. Fluid milk sales remained 0.2% below previous year levels throughout the 2020 calendar year, however. ’20-’21 annual fluid milk sales finished 3.6% below previous year levels, reaching a record low annual level.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the 14^th time in the past 15 months throughout Oct ’21, finishing down 5.7% and reaching a three year low seasonal level. ’20-’21 annual fat consumed within fluid milk finished 4.2% below the three year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching the lowest annual level on record.